关键词: 心理潜变量, 高铁民航, 出行行为, 仿真

Abstract: With the rapid development of China’s high-speed rail, the choice between high-speed rail and civil aviation travel has become a hot issue in the field of passenger travel behavior research. The simulation modeling of such passenger travel decisions can more systematically and clearly describe the characteristics of passengers and the evolution of competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation. First, based on the planned behavior theory, a multiple indicators and multiple causes model of high-speed rail and civil aviation passenger travel intentions was constructed by introducing time-sensitive and price-sensitive latent variables. Then, the exogenous variables and latent variables of the model were added to the utility function of trip decision to establish the simulation model. The results show that in the time and price sensitivity analysis, the effect of price sensitivity on passenger travel behavior starts at 500km, much earlier than time sensitivity. In the decision-making context of choosing high-speed rail and civil aviation travel, the passenger group can be effectively divided according to time sensitivity and price sensitivity. Compared with other passengers, Class II passengers are more willing to increase time costs and reduce economic costs. However, Class IV passengers are the opposite. Compared with Classes I and II passengers, Classes III and IV passengers are more flexible in switching between time cost and economic cost.

Key words: psychological latent variable, high-speed rail and civil aviation, travel behavior, simulation