Abstract:

Emergency supplies have the characteristics of large demand and high demand uncertainty. In the process of reserve, it is easy to have insufficient or excessive reserves. This problem is more prominent in the process of emergency material reserve with a short shelf life, which aggravates the capital pressure of the reserve subject. According to the characteristics of bidirectional option contract, this paper introduces bidirectional option contract into the procurement process of emergency supplies, and designs a procurement model of emergency supplies based on the bidirectional option contract under the condition of considering the probability of emergency. In addition, it analyzes the optimal reserve decision of the purchaser, and derives the parameters of supply chain coordination. By comparing with the wholesale price procurement model and the call option procurement model, it is found that the bidirectional option procurement model can reduce both the shortage risk and the shelf life risk of the government. Finally, it gives a numerical example to show that the option premium is positively correlated with the purchaser’s cost and supplier’s profit, and obtains the properties of the put option reserves and the call option reserves.

Key words: emergency reserve, emergency supplies procurement, bidirectional option contract, supply chain coordination

摘要：

应急物资具有需求量大、需求不确定性高的特点，在储备过程中易出现储备不足或储备过量的情况，这种问题在保质期较短的应急物资储备过程中更为突出，加重了储备主体的资金压力。根据双向期权契约的特点，将其引入政企应急物资的采购过程中，在考虑突发事件发生概率的情况下,设计了基于双向期权契约的应急物资采购储备模型。主要分析了采购方的最优储备决策，以及实现供应链协调的参数条件。通过与批发价格采购模型和看涨期权采购模式对比，发现双向期权采购模式既可以降低政府的缺货风险又可以降低其保质期风险。最后，通过数值例子得出期权费与采购方成本和供应商利润呈正相关关系，并得到看跌期权储备量和看涨期权储备量的相关性质。

关键词: 应急储备, 应急物资采购, 双向期权契约, 供应链协调