关键词:

医疗众筹, 创新扩散, 贝叶斯学习机制, 多主体建模

Abstract:

Medical crowdfunding has become an important fund-raising source when the ordinary people cannot afford the medical expenses. However, the “Luoer event” (i.e., hype behavior) makes medical crowdfunding widely questioned by netizens. In view of the important role of negative word-of-mouth in the reversal of public opinion in “Luoer event”, this paper establishes a diffusion simulation model based on the Bayesian learning mechanism, simulates the dynamic process of netizens’ views on medical crowdfundings based on positive and negative word-of-mouth, and studies the impact of speculation and related factors on the fund raiser’s income. It is found that hype can bring short-term benefits to the funding raiser, but it is likely to reduce his/her long-term benefits. The long-term or short-term benefits from hype are affected by relevant factors, such as the authenticity, prior impression, susceptibility, and network structure. Specifically, the authenticity and prior impression have a positive impact on the short-term benefits from hype, but a negative impact on the long-term benefits from hype. Susceptibility has a negative impact on short-term earnings, but its impact on long-term earnings varies with the network structure.

Key words: medical crowdfunding, innovation diffusion, Bayesian learning mechanism, multi-agent simulation