Table of Content

28 July 2021, Volume 30 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Managers’ Skewness Preference and Merger and Acquisition Performance XIANG Cheng, ZHAO Yuyang 2021, 30 (4):  601-617.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.001 Abstract ( )   PDF (1108KB) ( )   This study finds that managers of Chinese listed firms exhibit the skewness preference in merger and acquisition activities, that is, they prefer merger and acquisition targets with lottery-like payoffs. They pay significantly larger premiums for merger and acquisition targets with more skewed payoff distributions, which, in turn, leads to a lower stock market or accounting merger and acquisition performance. This effect is more pronounced for non-SOE acquirers, for acquirers with a lower institutional ownership, and for acquirers whose headquarters are located in provinces where gambling norms are more prevalent. This effect is robust when managerial overconfidence is controlled and alternative measurements of main variables are used. This paper reveals the impact of managers’ irrational behavior biases on their merger and acquisition decisions and performance from the perspective of skewness preference. It also enriches the studies on how managers’ skewness preference affects their corporate finance decisions, and how cultural norms affect capital market outcomes such as merger and acquisition performance. Related Articles

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Inflation Expectation, Risk Transfer Ability, and Commercial Credit Risk Management CAO Yuqiang, WANG Hongjian, LIU Xinghe, TANG Taijie 2021, 30 (4):  618-630.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.002 Abstract ( )   PDF (1086KB) ( )   From the perspective of risk management, this paper empirically studied the effect of inflation expectation on the adjustment of business credit structure and its mechanism. It will not only help reveal the causes of the formation of “triangular debts” among enterprises, but also reveal the micro-transmission mechanism of inflation risk. The research finds that when the expected inflation is high, enterprises will adjust the commercial credit structure to manage risk by reducing accounts receivable and increasing accounts payable, so as to resist the inflation risk. The mechanism test finds that because export enterprises have a stronger ability to transfer the inflation risk to overseas customers, the motivation of enterprises to adjust the commercial credit structure to resist the inflation risk is weaker. However, changing the customer structure cannot disperse the inflation risk, which has no significant impact on the relationship between inflation expectation and the adjustment of the commercial credit structure. The expansion test also finds that as the degree of social trust decreases, the motivation of enterprises to adjust their commercial credit structure to resist the risk of inflation increases. Related Articles

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Impact of Knowledge Integration Capability on Performances of Manufacturing Firms Based on Exploratory Innovation CHEN Jing, ZENG Deming, OUYANG Xiaoping 2021, 30 (4):  631-642.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.003 Abstract ( )   PDF (1068KB) ( )   Exploratory innovation is of great significance to the manufacturing industry with core competitiveness. Based on theories of knowledge base and collaborative innovation, the model of the impact of exploratory innovation-based knowledge integration capabilities on the performance of manufacturing firms is constructed, and the moderating roles of breadth and depth of collaborative research and development are also analyzed. A sample of 1239 listed high-tech firms in China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2017 are used for an empirical analysis. The results show that both the hybrid knowledge integration capability and the innovation-based knowledge integration capability have an inverted-U-shaped relationship with the performances of manufacturing firms. Moreover, the breadth of collaborative research and development reinforces the positive effect of the innovation-based knowledge integration capability on the performances of high-tech firms, but its moderating effect on the relationship between the hybrid knowledge integration capability and the performances of manufacturing firms is not significant. The depth of collaborative research and development weakens the positive impact of the innovation-based knowledge and hybrid knowledge integration capabilities on the performances of manufacturing firms. These conclusions provide a new perspective for analyzing the impact of internal knowledge integration capabilities on the performance of manufacturing firms, and references for adjusting the collaborative relationship between external firms. Related Articles

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Incentive Contracts for Integrated Facility Management Service Supplier in BIM Context TANG Hongxia, CAO Jiming, SHAO Zhiguo 2021, 30 (4):  643-652.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.004 Abstract ( )   PDF (4892KB) ( )   In order to effectively motivate integrated facility management (IFM) service suppliers to apply building information modeling (BIM) for IFM outsourcing service and realize the application value of BIM in the IFM process and the IFM project performance, a multi-task principal-agent model is built on IFM service suppliers’ two service tasks of BIM system operation and IFM business consulting during IFM outsourcing with BIM application based on the principal-agent theory. Relying on this model, the incentive contracts are analyzed in the three incentive modes in which the cost of the two service tasks is independent, interdependent, and interchangeable. Combining with the model calculation and MATLAB simulation results, the optimal incentive mode and its incentive contract are identified. The research shows that incentive contracts in the different modes have different incentive effects on IFM service suppliers, and have different impacts on the IFM outsourcing performance of owners. The optimal incentive contracts in the three incentive modes are ranked from high to low as the optimal incentive contract in the cost interdependent mode, the optimal incentive contract in the cost independent mode, and the optimal incentive contract in the cost interchangeable mode. Owners should select the suitable incentive model and contract to incentivize IFM service suppliers, and as the service capability and IFM project performance increase, the incentive from owners increase. Related Articles

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A Personalized Healthcare Reminding Method Based on Scene Modeling REN Xiaojia, ZHANG Weiqiang, ZHANG Pengzhu 2021, 30 (4):  653-663.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.005 Abstract ( )   PDF (2627KB) ( )   With the continuous development of the technology of the Internet and the Internet of things, the intelligent healthcare method is respected and used by more and more users. In intelligent healthcare management, generation of healthcare reminders based on user’s personal status and surrounding environment information will greatly improve the matching degree between healthcare reminders and users and realize panoramic and personalized healthcare. A research method is proposed which abstracts user’s personal status and surrounding environment as user’s scene model, establishes a scene database and a healthcare rule base. Then, the user’s scenes trigger healthcare rules and generate health reminders. The domain ontology modeling method is used to model  user’s scenes, healthcare rules, and healthcare reminders. The classes of scene ontology model are instantiated, and the scene database and rule base are constructed according to the actual situation and common sense. Based on the scene database and rule base, taking all scenes that a user may face on a specific day as examples, healthcare rules are triggered and healthcare reminders are generated. Finally, based on the scene ontology model, a healthcare reminder generation system is designed and developed to achieve the functions of scene data acquisition, storage, and health reminder generation. Related Articles

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How to Solve the Problem of Big Data Killing: Evolutionary Game in E-Commerce Market Based on Collaborative Supervision of Government and Consumers LEI Licai, GAO Shang, CHEN Ruixiang 2021, 30 (4):  664-675.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.006 Abstract ( )   PDF (1322KB) ( )   The frequent disclosure of the big data killing phenomenon in e-commerce market reveals the hidden danger of the moral hazard of e-commerce platforms. First, this paper establishes an evolutionary game model for the “killing behavior” of platforms in pricing and the channel choice of consumers under the supervision of the government. The results show that the punishment of the government plays a decisive role in avoiding the moral hazard of platforms. When the punishment is strong enough, the system will eventually converge to an ideal evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) of “Internet consumption, and fair pricing”. However, when the punishment is not strong enough, although the fairness concern of the consumers can affect the pricing strategy of the platforms to some extent, the system will converge to the ESS of “Internet consumption, and unfair pricing” or to a no ESS state. Consequently, the market will fall into the dilemma where consumers frequently encounter the problem of big data “killing” from e-commerce platforms. So, how should the trust crisis problem caused by the e-commerce market be resolved? Based on the above facts, an evolutionary game model under the mechanism of collaborative supervision of the governments and consumers is developed. This study indicates that the key factors that affect the supervision strategy of consumers are social incomes and supervision costs. The greater the difference between social benefits and supervision costs, the fast the evolution of the behavior of active supervision. Especially when the punishment of the government is not sufficient, the pressure of public opinion and the loss of image brought by the supervision of consumers can effectively restrain the killing behavior of the platforms. Moreover, the combination of reputation loss and government punishment can accelerate the evolution speed of avoiding the killing behavior of platforms, and force the platforms to make fair pricing. This paper can provide some implications for the design of supervision mechanism of big data “killing” in e-commerce market. Related Articles

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Financing Strategies for a Capital-Constrained Retailer in a Dual-Channel Supply Chain with Customer Returns YU Mingqian, CAI Min, YANG Qinjie 2021, 30 (4):  676-684.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.007 Abstract ( )   PDF (3900KB) ( )   With the consideration of customer returns, this paper studies a dual-channel supply chain in which the capital sufficient supplier sells goods to customers through the online channel and capital constrained retailer simultaneously. Three financing strategies, i.e., trade credit, bank loan, and hybrid financing (combined use of bank loan and equity financing) are formulated to address the financing issue of the retailer. First, the Stackelberg game models in the three financing modes are established to derive the optimal pricing decisions and the influence of return rates of online channel and retail channel. Next, the profits of the supplier, the retailer, and the whole supply chain in the three financing modes are analyzed and compared to explore the optimal financing strategy of the retailer. The results show that the optimal financing strategy for the retailer is either trade credit or hybrid financing. Specifically, when the equity financing ratio is small, trade credit is the equilibrium strategy. However, when the equity financing ratio is large, hybrid financing is the equilibrium strategy. Related Articles

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Dynamic Pricing of European Options Based on Hull-White Extension LI Kunhao, QIN Xuezhi, WANG Lin 2021, 30 (4):  685-696.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.008 Abstract ( )   PDF (1112KB) ( )   Dynamic pricing of European options involves the repeated dynamics of price observation, model choice, state variable estimation, and option pricing for the next time grid. To function well, an approach to dynamic option pricing has to be sequential, accurate, and easy to apply. This paper, therefore, proposes an approach to dynamic pricing based on Hull-White extensions. Specifically, the time-homogeneous affine stochastic volatility model is adopted as the basic model for Hull-White extension. In markets where only a limited number of options exist, instantaneous variance is estimated using the particle filter algorithm, and the Hull-White extension for pricing is updated without changing explicit parameters, both according to the observed option pricing surface. Pricing is further realized using forward characteristics. The results of empirical tests show that compared with the normal risk neutral pricing based on competing models, both with constant model parameters and with parameter learning, the approach proposed in this paper significantly improves the accuracy and stability of pricing results. Related Articles

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Behavioral Option Pricing Based on Deep-Learning Algorithm SUN Youfa, QIU Zijie, YAO Yuhang, LIU Caiyan 2021, 30 (4):  697-708.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.009 Abstract ( )   PDF (9594KB) ( )   This paper proposes a deep-learning algorithm based the behavioral option pricing approach, under a real high-dimensional behavioral asset pricing model considering the herding behavior, restricted rationality, and stochastically developing structure of investors. This approach uses the Feynman-Kac formula to derive an iterative equation of option price, and approximates the gradient functions in the iterative equation by neural network. The option price is obtained by optimizing the parameters of the whole deep-learning neural network. The numerical experiments show that compared with the Monte Carlo method, the deep-learning neural network is not only more accurate but also more efficient when valuating options with high-dimensional behavioral assets. The research finds that the option price is generally increasing in the investors’ irrationality of stock market. The effects of market micro-structure reversion speed and investors’ herding behavior on option price are heterogeneous with respect to markets in different maturities. For an immature market, the option price is increasing in the reversion speed and herding behavior while for a mature market, both factors stabilize the option price. Related Articles

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Asset Allocation Model Considering Spatial Interaction in Regime-Dependence CHEN Na, JIN Xiu 2021, 30 (4):  709-716.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.010 Abstract ( )   PDF (985KB) ( )   This paper constructs an economic distance based spatial weight matrix to capture the spatial interaction among assets, considers the influence of market regime on spatial interaction,  and develops a return estimation model taking into consideration spatial interaction in regime-dependence. By deriving the covariance matrix of expected return, an asset allocation model considering both time and cross-sectional dimensional systemic risks is constructed. It is found that spatial interaction is regime-dependent and has a significant explanatory power for return. The beta coefficients in regime-dependence capture the time dimensional systemic risk, while the indirect effects and feedback effects capture the cross-sectional dimensional systemic risk. Consideration of the spatial interaction in regime-dependence can improve the performance of the asset allocation model and provide valuable reference for investors to make decisions. Related Articles

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Vehicle Routing Problem with Release Dates and Time Windows of E-Commerce Terminal Distribution LI Kunpeng, SUN Xinrui, LIU Tengbo, LI Wenli 2021, 30 (4):  717-728.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.011 Abstract ( )   PDF (3199KB) ( )   This paper studied the vehicle routing problem with release dates and time windows of e-commerce terminal distribution, taking into consideration order release dates, customers time windows, and customer dispersion, in order to minimize the total travel distance. Besides, it not only constructed a flow-based model, but also proposed a novel linear model considering problem characteristic. Moreover, it developed an improved branch-and-cut algorithm based on two valid inequalities. Furthermore, it compared the two models and analyzed the influence of two valid inequalities on the algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed exact method was verified by comparing it with the CPLEX default branch-and-cut algorithm. The results show that proposed method can get the optimal solution in a short time for small size instances. For large size instances, the related intelligent algorithm can be evaluated by the optimal solutions obtained by the improved branch-and-cut algorithm. Related Articles

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Game of Natural Gas Import Between China and EU Under the Influence of Reserve Preferences ZHANG Rong, LI Shan 2021, 30 (4):  729-742.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.012 Abstract ( )   PDF (1853KB) ( )   China is currently the largest importer of natural gas in the world, but its gas reserves are relatively low compared with the European Union (EU). The gas reserves in China will rise significantly in the near future in response to uncertainties to ensure a reliable gas supply. A change of natural gas reserve level will cause a change of natural gas market demand, which will affect the strategy of the natural gas import in the EU after PNG is connected from Russia to China. The purpose of this paper is to theoretically analyze the potential influence of the change of natural gas reserve preference in China on the natural gas import game in different information structures. The research shows that only when China adjusts its reserve preference, can its benefit in a simultaneous game reach that of the leader in a Stackelberg game, and will the benefit of the EU be damaged in this case. When both China and the EU can adjust their reserve preferences, each equilibrium profit may be reduced by excessive reserves, but Russia may thus obtain more producer surplus. This paper also studies the quantitative property of the equilibrium price, the equilibrium import quantity, and the profit level. At the same time, it tested the validity and stability of the conclusions by using the relevant data of the natural gas market. Related Articles

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Propagation and Control of Nosocomial Infection Based on Multidimensional Continuous-Time Markov Chain SU Qiang, ZHU Min, ZHU Yanhong, ZOU Ni 2021, 30 (4):  743-751.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.013 Abstract ( )   PDF (1553KB) ( )   Nosocomial infection is an important index of medical service quality. The existing literatures mainly study infection transmission based on the compartmental model, but fails to consider the status of discharged patients, which often overestimated the risk of systemic infection. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a research on the propagation and control of nosocomial infection based on multidimensional continuous-time Markov chain (MCTMC), so as to accurately depict the infection status and evolution process of patients and healthcare personnel. According to the characteristics of nosocomial infection transmission, infection vectors (healthcare personnel) were integrated into the mechanism of SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible ) to build a MCTMC-SIS model. By analyzing and comparing the state evolution rates of these two models, it is proved that the MCTMC-SIS model is advanced. Finally, the effectiveness of the control strategy is verified by numerical simulation, and the importance of parameters is evaluated. The results show that the rate of pathogenic bacteria on admission has a higher influence on the transmission of infection. When the rate is high (≥ 0.05), it is ineffective to reduce the risk of infection by improving the discharge rate of patients and the frequency of hand-washing. In actual infection control, infected patients need to be monitored in advance to reduce the risk of infection. Related Articles

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Influence of Absorptive Capacity on Enterprise Innovation Based on Meta-Analysis FENG Lijie, ZHU Lei, WANG Jinfeng, YU Liangru 2021, 30 (4):  752-762.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.014 Abstract ( )   PDF (1253KB) ( )   As one of the hot issues concerned by the management science, although the research literature on the relationship between absorptive capacity and enterprise innovation is increasing, the research conclusions are always different. Thus, the absorption capacity is divided into the input of the absorption knowledge base and the absorption process of the three dimensions. Based on the exploration of the potential moderating effect on the relationship between absorptive capacity and enterprise innovation by taking cultural differences and enterprise types as situational factors and measurement methods as measurement factors, a more general research conclusion was obtained based on the meta-analysis of 104 empirical literatures, 162 effect values, and 44441 independent samples. It is found that there is a significant medium correlation between absorptive capacity and enterprise innovation. Besides, the three dimensions of absorptive capacity have a significant promoting effect on enterprise innovation, of which the dimension of absorptive process has a stronger promoting effect on enterprise innovation than the dimension of absorptive input and knowledge base. In addition, compared with foreign enterprises, the absorptive capacity of domestic enterprises in the Chinese context has a greater impact on enterprise innovation. Moreover, industry type is an important regulating variable of the relationship between absorption capacity and enterprise innovation. The absorption input and absorption process of high-tech enterprises have a greater impact on enterprise innovation, while the absorption knowledge base of non-high-tech enterprises has a greater impact on enterprise innovation. Compared with non-scale data, scale data has a greater impact on the absorptive capacity and enterprise innovation. This paper can provide scientific decision basis for enterprises to efficiently conduct innovation activities. Related Articles

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Research and Dvelopment Investment，Innovation Performance，and Economic Growth：An Empirical Study of PVAR Based on Provincial Panel Data SU Yi, LI Dan 2021, 30 (4):  763-770.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.015 Abstract ( )   PDF (1501KB) ( )   Based on the panel data of the 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2016, this paper establishes a PVAR model to study the dynamic interaction among research and development investment, innovation performance, and economic growth using Granger causality tests, impulse response function, and the variance decomposition analysis method. The empirical results show that innovation performance and economic growth significantly promote the increase in research and development investment. There is a significant mutual promotion between innovation performance and economic growth. Based on the empirical research, relevant countermeasures are proposed from three aspects: improving the conversion efficiency of research and development investment to innovation performance, attaching importance to the interaction mechanism between research and development investment and economic growth, and improving the transformation of economic value of innovation performance. Related Articles

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Empirical Study of Factors Influencing the Willingness to Sign the Requisition Agreement for Rural Passenger Self-Employed Bus 2021, 30 (4):  771-778.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.016 Abstract ( )   PDF (1059KB) ( )   Related Articles

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Mean-Variance Model of Production Decision of Firms in Emission Permit Price Uncertainty CHANG Shan, HU Bin, WANG Tingting, DING Long 2021, 30 (4):  779-793.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.017 Abstract ( )   PDF (7573KB) ( )   Forming alliance is an important strategic choice for firms to tackle demand uncertainty and avoid excessive competition. However, due to the differences between firms, it is a problem worthy of attention in making such decisions when choosing the appropriate alliance partners, based on the market competition environment and the demand forecasting accuracy of potential partners. In a single layer supply chain composed of three price competition firms facing price-sensitive but uncertain demand, the firms can utilize forecasting techniques to obtain demand information for price decision. In order to cope with demand uncertainty and reduce market competition intensity, an alliance could emerge among the firms to share demand information with each other. The expected profits of each entity were calculated in different alliance structures with and without forecasting techniques. The numerical analysis demonstrates the impacts of competition intensity and forecasting accuracy on the expected profits of the three firms in different alliance structures, and distinguishes the influences of cooperation and information sharing on expected profits. The observations and conclusions obtained in this paper can provide decision support for related enterprises. Related Articles

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New Product Releasing and Network Dynamic Evolution of Brand Community WANG Wei, MENG Tao 2021, 30 (4):  794-805.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.018 Abstract ( )   PDF (6666KB) ( )   Brand communities create and spread product knowledge and marketing information in the way of customer interaction in the community, which has boomed in new product development and new product marketing. When a new product is released, dynamic changes will occur in the interaction of users. Based on the interaction data in the Redmi Note4/4X forum of the Mi community, this paper explores the dynamic evolution of the community after the release of a new product. The results show that the network attributes of the community and the new product spreading can affect each other, and when the new product is released, there is a significant core-peripheral structure, where core users gather new users while new users have a lower participation possibility. On the whole, the user structure of the brand community has a loose structure, and the degree of user participation and interaction is low. The community has a significant centralization trend and the employed users play an important role in the community. Related Articles

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Mean-Variance Model of Production Decision of Firms in Emission Permit Price Uncertainty JIN Shuai, Niu Yifei, WU Sumin 2021, 30 (4):  806-816.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2021.04.019 Abstract ( )   PDF (5268KB) ( )   The random profit function and its mean and variance of firms in emission permit price uncertainty are derived by investigating the optimal response of the firms as price followers to a given emission permit price. Moreover, optimization models with different decision objectives are established following the analytical framework of the mean-variance model. Accordingly, optimal decisions with risk consideration are demonstrated, along with the influences of external scenario factors on optimal decisions. Furthermore, the influence of different parameters on the results of the model is analyzed by numerical simulation, and the conclusions are verified. Related Articles