系统管理学报

系统管理学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 53-63.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2023.01.004

• 工业工程与工程管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于合成事件技术的项目群甲供非商品化资源的配置优化

丰景春1a，1b，1c，2，刘琴1a，1b，陈润东3，冯海瑜4，王腾飞5   

  1. 河海大学 1a.商学院；1b.项目管理研究所；1c.国际河流研究中心，南京 211100；>2.江苏省世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心，南京 211100；3.广西壮族自治区水利厅，南宁 530023；4.广西壮族自治区水利工程建设管理中心，南宁 530023，5.中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司，天津 300222
  • 出版日期:2023-01-28 发布日期:2023-01-17
  • 作者简介:丰景春（1963-），男，博士，博士生导师。研究方向为项目管理与工程管理。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金资助项目（17BGL156）；住房和城乡建设部2018年科学技术项目计划（2018-K8-23）；河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目（B220207039）

Allocation Optimization of NCRPE for Program Based on Merge-Event Time-Estimation Technique

FENG Jingchun1a,1b,1c,2，LIU Qin1a,1b，CHEN Rundong3，FENG Haiyu4，WANG Tengfei5   

  1. 1a. Business School; 1b. Institute of Project Management; 1c. International River Research Centre, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China; 3. Department of Water Resources of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning 530023, China; 4. Water Conservancy Project Construction Management Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning 530023, China; 5. China Water Resources Beifang Investigation, Design and Research Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300222, China

  • Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-01-17

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摘要：

甲供非商品化资源（the Non-Commercial Resource Provided by Employer，NCRPE）是项目群建设的瓶颈资源，它对业主投资和进度具有重要影响。首先，基于传统的资源优化理论与方法，综合考虑因非关键合同项目的时差使用所致的工期延误风险，研究并构建了以NCRPE的风险型费用现值最小为目标的优化模型，并引入了用于计算风险的合成事件技术；其次，设计了混合粒子群算法求解此模型；最后，开展X项目群的案例分析，计算得到最优解，并对比了最优资金费用现值方案、最早时间开工方案、最晚时间开工方案与传统资源均衡方案的结果。研究结果表明：最优费用现值方案不仅能够实现费用现值最小，同时还能在一定程度上确保项目群较高的完工概率和较低的工期延误风险。研究成果为业主制定项目群NCRPE的配置计划提供了一种新思路。

关键词:

甲供非商品化资源, 费用现值, 合成事件技术, 工期延误风险

Abstract:

The non-commercial resource provided by employer(NCRPE) is the bottleneck material required for the construction of the program, which has an important impact on the investment and schedule of the program of the employer. First, based on traditional resource optimization theories and methods, this paper comprehensively considers the risk of construction delay caused by the use of slack time in non-critical contracted projects. It studies and constructs an optimization model aiming at minimizing the present value of risk-based costs of NCRPE, and introduces the merge-event time-estimation technique to calculate this risk. Next, it designed a hybrid particle swarm algorithm to solve the model. After that, it conducts a case analysis of the X program, calculates the optimal solution, and compares the results of the optimal capital cost present value plan, the earliest time starting plan, the latest time starting plan, and the traditional resource balance plan. The results show that the optimal cost present value plan can not only realize the minimum cost present value, but also ensure a high completion probability and low risk of construction delay of the program to a certain extent. The findings provide a new idea for the employer to formulate the allocation plan of the NCRPE of the program.

Key words:

non-commercial resource provided by employer (NCRPE), present value of cost, merge-event time-estimation technique, risk of construction delay

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