关键词: 能源错配, 经济增长方式, 碳减排潜力, 市场化改革

Abstract: During the transformation of economic growth mode, the misallocation of production factors has become one of the key obstacles to achieving high-quality economic development. This paper constructs an estimation model by incorporating energy as a factor into the Cobb-Douglas production function. It calculates the degree of energy misallocation and analyzes the spatial correlation features of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2020 based on relative distortion coefficients. Furthermore, it decomposes economic growth into factor inputs and total factor productivity to reveal the differentiated economic growth mode among regions. In a counterfactual analysis framework, it estimates the potential for carbon reduction under scenarios of effective energy allocation. The findings indicate that China’s overall energy misallocation index is 1.501, indicating a moderate overallocation of energy. Among regions, the eastern region exhibits better energy allocation efficiency compared to the central and northeast regions, while western region faces the most severe misallocation issues. Energy misallocation shows significant positive spatial correlation but lacks evident spatial migration characteristics. Capital, labor, and energy inputs play a leading role in contributing to economic growth, with most provinces still following a factor-driven growth model. Only a few regions have transitioned to innovation-driven development. The results from representative cities are consistent with provincial-level findings. Under efficient energy allocation, China’s carbon reduction potential ranges from 13.85% to 16.94%, with the central and western regions showing higher sensitivity to energy misallocation. Resource-based cities exhibit notably higher carbon reduction potential than non-resource-based cities, while declining cities have the highest potential overall. This paper not only provides a novel perspective on factor misallocation and the underlying drivers of China’s economic growth, but also offer valuable insights for policy-making aimed at promoting high-quality economic development and achieving China’s goal of carbon peaking in 2030.

Key words: energy misallocation, economic growth mode, carbon reduction potential, marketization reform