关键词: 群体性突发事件, 事件等级确定, D-S证据理论, 自我可靠度, 风险认知态度

Abstract: The determination of mass emergency levels is the decision-making basis for starting scientific hierarchical responses, which needs to integrate the judgment of different experts in many fields for a comprehensive judgment. Considering the risk attitude of experts facing uncertain decision-making? a method is proposed to determine the emergency level based on the double reliability of "expert weight and self-reliability". First, based on the double reliability, a complete evidence generation method considering expert risk attitude and the semantic relevance of emergency level is constructed. In addition, an improved evidence fusion method is proposed by comprehensively considering the subjective and objective information of evidence, so that the original tendency information of experts can be fully and effectively retained in the fusion results. Moreover, a discrimination test method of fusion results is given to avoid the situation of low differentiation between levels. Furthermore? the feasibility and scientificity of the method are verified by an example. The experimental results show that the self-reliability and risk attitude of experts will affect the results of emergency level judgment. The method of determination of the emergency level considering these two factors can improve the reliability and credibility of decision-making.

Key words: mass emergency；determination of emergency level；D-S (Dempster-Shafer) , evidence theory；self-reliability；risk attitude