系统管理学报

系统管理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 1161-1168.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2019.06.017

• 技术与创新管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

能源强度、交通压力与雾霾污染——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证

刘晓红1，江可申2   

  1. 1 南京晓庄学院商学院，南京 211171； 2 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院，南京 211106
  • 出版日期:2019-11-28 发布日期:2020-01-15
  • 作者简介:刘晓红(1976-)，女，博士，副教授。研究方向为环境经济。
  • 基金资助:

    江苏省社会科学基金资助项目（17EYD006）；

    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71573138）；

    江苏省高校“青蓝工程”资助项目

Energy Intensity, Traffic Pressure and Haze Pollution: An Empirical Study Based on Static and Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

LIU Xiaohong1, JIANG Keshen2   

  1. 1. Business College, Nanjing Xiaozhuang University, Nanjing 211171, China; 2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
  • Online:2019-11-28 Published:2020-01-15

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摘要： 采用2003~2014年中国30省区面板数据，运用空间计量经济学方法，使用地理距离权重矩阵，建立静态与动态空间面板计量经济学模型，分析城镇化进程中能源强度、交通压力、能源结构等对雾霾污染的影响。研究发现，雾霾污染存在正的空间相关性，局部地区雾霾污染存在集聚现象；空间和时间固定效应的空间杜宾模型最优；静态和动态空间面板模型都显示雾霾污染存在空间外溢效应，我国经济发展与雾霾污染之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线，能源结构、交通压力与雾霾污染呈同方向变动，能源强度的溢出效应为负；动态空间面板模型比静态更为合适，估计结果更为准确，揭示了行为习惯等遗漏因素对雾霾的影响也很重要。

关键词: 雾霾污染, 能源强度, 交通压力, 静态空间面板模型, 动态空间面板模型

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of energy intensity, traffic pressure, and energy structure on hazy pollution in the process of urbanization based on the static and dynamic spatial panel econometric model by using the panel data of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2003 to 2014, by using the spatial econometric method and geographic distance weight matrix, and by establishing static and dynamic spatial panel econometric models. It is found that haze pollution is of spatial correlation and there exists agglomeration in some areas. The spatial Durbin model with space and time fixed effects is the best of all. Both static and dynamic spatial panel models show that haze pollution has spatial spillover effects. There exists an environment Kuznets Curve between economic growth and haze pollution. Energy structure, traffic pressure, and pollution haze changes in the same direction. The energy intensity of spillover effect is negative. The dynamic spatial panel model is more appropriate and accurate than the static model, which reveals that the omission factors such as behavior custom also have a very important influence on haze pollution.

Key words: haze pollution, energy intensity, traffic pressure, static space panel model, dynamic space panel model

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