关键词: 供应链中断风险, 应急运作, 系统动力学

Abstract: In recent years, supply chain disruption risks caused by large-scale major events (activities) in metropolis have increased, which poses challenges to supply chain management. In the case of supply chain disruption with changing demand, a production-inventory system consisting of raw material suppliers, manufacturers, and contingency suppliers for outsourcing finished products is affected by some variables such as disruption parameters, demand lost rate, and transfer delay of core technology. To find the optimal contingency polices, a system dynamics model was introduced to simulate its operations under supply disruption risk and optimize the “order-up-to-level” inventory and the whole profit objective function. It was found that when the length of the interrupt cycle is different, the market demand lost rate varies with the length of the delivery disruption, which impacts the choice of contingency polices on supply disruption risk. Besides, the loss of long-term profit can be reduced by adjusting the level of contingency inventory and shortening the delay of contingency decision information.

Key words: supply chain disruption risk, contingency policies, system dynamics