关键词: 物流方案, 累积前景理论, 期望, 优先度

Abstract:

To effectively reflect decision makers’ aspirations and behaviors in the process of logistics scheme selection, an approach of logistics scheme selection based on the cumulative prospect theory and the multiple attribute decision making theory was proposed. First, psychological behavior factors of decision makers are considered, and the aspiration of decision makers with respect to each attribute was chosen as the corresponding reference. Next, decision matrixes with clear numbers, interval numbers, and linguistic assessment terms were transformed into the corresponding decision matrixes of gains or losses relative to the set references. Finally, the comprehensive prospect value of each scheme was calculated based on the cumulative prospect theory considering the different risk attitudes of decision makers to gains and losses, and a ranking of logistics scheme alternatives was determined based on the comprehensive prospect values obtained. An example was given to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the approach proposed.

Key words: logistics scheme, cumulative prospect theory, aspriation, priority