关键词: 社会网络, 网络中心度, 高管连锁, 盈余预测, 私人信息

Abstract: Using the sample of A-share listed firms in China from 2011 to 2017, this paper attempted to examine the impacts of the interlock network centralities of the top management team (TMT) of firms on the accuracy of  earnings forecast of analysts, from the perspective of private information supply. The results show that the network centralities of firms significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasts of analysts. This effect is more pronounced with firms whose public information is not sufficient. Besides, this effect is more pronounced with firms whose senior managers have more opportunities to interact with the senior managers in interlocked firms. These findings show that there exists private information in the interlock network of TMT of firms, which can be captured by analysts to enrich the information supply in the financial market. Further tests show that the private information existed in the social network of firms contains the bad news that is often delayed and even hidden in the public channel, which rectifies the  information biases of analysts. These findings may enrich the research on the forecasts of analysts, and contribute to a better understanding of private information flow of listed firms.

Key words: social network, network centrality, top management team (TMT) interlock, earnings forecast, private information