关键词: 关键链项目群管理, 合同项目异质性, 业主现值-工期优化

Abstract:

Program is the basic form of large-scale project organization and implementation. Since the program involves multiple stakeholders, the construction delay of the contracted project will amplify the risk of the employer. Therefore, how to improve the on-time completion probability of the contracted project, milestone contracted project and program through the effective monitoring of the buffer of the key chain program is the key to reducing the risk of the employer. First, from the perspective of the employer’s demand preference, the contracted project is divided into the employer’s present value preference contracted project and duration preference contracted project. Then, by analyzing the characteristics of milestone contracted projects, this paper studies and constructs the buffer monitoring model of key chain program based on the heterogeneity of contracted projects under different employer’s demand preferences. Finally, the buffer of key chain program is allocated according to the comprehensive utility, and different buffer monitoring benchmarks are set for the two types of contracted projects. At the same time, in combination with the milestone contracted project, the deviation correction measures of buffer monitoring benchmark are proposed. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional static unified buffer monitoring method, the differential monitoring method can realize the double optimization of the employer’s present value and construction period of the projected group at the same time, and improve the on-time completion probability of contracted projects, milestone contracted projects, and programs.

Key words: key chain program management, heterogeneity of contracted projects, employer’s present value-duration optimization