关键词: 不守时到达, 预约间隔, 取消预约, 随机优化

Abstract:

Patients may not be strictly punctual to the appointment time, which causes disorder between arrival and service. This paper mainly focuses on the unpunctuality of patients considering stochastic factors, such as cancellation and uncertain service time. To ensure the appointment effectiveness and consecutive doctor service, it proposes a service order alternative rule depending on actual arrival times of two adjacent patients. Towards the multi-doctor appointment system, it formulates a mixed 0-1 stochastic programming model which is transformed based on sample scenarios. Aimed at the model difficulties in large scale and variable complexity, it designs an UP-FU algorithm to decompose the model into two sub-problems, which iteratively solves the allocation model and optimizes the appointment time. Numerical experiments show that as patients are more likely to be late, the arrival variability increases, the probability of canceling reservations increases, the variety of appointment interval is higher, the schedule is generally closer, the outpatient department allocates more patients consecutively to the same doctor rather than to different doctors alternately.

Key words: unpunctual arrival, appointment interval, appointment cancellation, stochastic optimization