关键词: 清洁技术投资, 需求不确定性, 均值-方差, 决策偏好

Abstract: Considering stochastic demand and decision-making preferences, this paper developed a three-stage decision-making model for manufacturing firms under carbon trading policy. This model examines the optimal technology investment and production decisions for firms producing homogeneous products using either clean technology or conventional technology. Additionally, this paper derives a technology investment decision model and a production decision model for risk-neutral firms under stochastic demand scenarios. Following the mean-variance analytical framework, it formulates three optimization models with varying decision preferences. The main findings reveal that the optimal decision for a risk-neutral firm depends on the marginal returns of producing clean products, the cost of technology investment, and the market mean. In contrast, the mean-variance decision-making model, which accounts for downside risk, shows that optimal decisions under different decision preferences systematically deviate from the risk-neutral optimal decisions and exhibit more conservative risk avoidance. Moreover, changes in external contextual factors can even reverse the optimal technology investment decisions. Finally, this paper analyzes the effects of different parameters on the model results and decision deviations using numerical examples, and well validates the conclusions.

Key words: clean technology investment, demand uncertainty, mean-variance analysis, decision preferences