关键词: 在线销售, 配送能力, 订货决策, 自由分布, 鲁棒优化

Abstract: This paper studies the decision-making problem of ordering and carrier capacity for an online sales enterprise with certain carrier capacities under uncertain demand. Based on the expected profit function of the online sales enterprise, a robust optimization model based on distribution-free is developed with the mean and variance as the only known demand distribution information. For the proposed model, the dual theory is used to transform it into tractable mathematical programming. The corresponding ordering and carrier capacity decisions are derived, and the sensitivity of relevant system parameters is analyzed. The effectiveness of the model in dealing with demand uncertainty is verified by numerical calculation. The results show that the optimal order quantity of the online sales enterprise increases while the increment of the optimal carrier capacity decreases with its original capacity. When the online sales enterprise has its own carrier capacity, the expected profit in different distribution is generally higher than that without capacity. In particular, a comparison of the robust decisions based on the proposed model with those obtained in normal or uniform distribution demonstrates that the difference between the expected profit derived from the robust decisions and the optimal expected profit when the demand distribution is known is relatively small, which indicates that the decisions derived from the proposed model have a good robustness.

Key words: online sales, carrier capacity, ordering decision, distribution-free, robust optimization