关键词: 过度自信, 资金约束, 银行融资, 订购决策

Abstract: Retailers' overconfidence on market demand is mainly reflected in two aspects: over-expectation of market demand and overestimation of market demand forecast accuracy, which will lead to deviations in their operational decisions compared with decisions when they are completely rational. This paper studies the optimal ordering decision problem of overconfident retailer by constructing a cognitive model reflecting two kinds of overconfidence, which improves the cognitive model that normally considers the overconfidence in the accuracy of market demand prediction in related existing research. Based on the improved model, it obtains the optimal ordering decision for overconfident retailer with no capital constraints and with capital constraints alleviated by bank financing. The results show that the overconfident retailer’s optimal order quantity is larger than that of a rational one when he has sufficient fund and the expected market demand is relatively high. However, the optimal expected profit will be decreasing with retailer’s overconfidence preference. The conclusions will be opposite when the expected market demand is relatively small. The risk-averse bank’s loan decision is affected by the retailer’s initial capital level. The capital-constrained retailer’s optimal order quantity is related to his overconfidence preference, interest rate as well as his initial capital level.

Key words: overconfidence, capital constrains, bank financing, ordering decision