关键词: FICs在线广告, CICs在线广告, 连续隐马尔可夫模型, 广告响应, 动态转移

Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between different online advertising and the dynamic transition in consumers’ advertising responses, which are not directly observable, from a hidden dynamic perspective. Using the data of a large e-commerce company in China, it develops a continuous-time hidden Markov model to analyze the behavioral characteristics and dynamic transfer paths of advertising response of consumer groups across different advertising channels. The findings show that most online advertising significantly influence the transition of consumers’ advertising responses. Specifically, customer-initiated contacts advertising has a more pronounced effect on consumer advertising response compared to firm-initiated contacts advertising. Additionally, the non-transactional behavior of consumers under CICs advertising remains basically consistent, while the non-transactional behavior of consumers under firm-initiated contacts advertising differs significantly. From the perspective of dynamic transition, this paper reveals the underlying reasons behind the different effects of various online advertising, and provides guidance for enterprises to effectively place online advertisements.

Key words: FICs online advertising, customer-initiated contacts (CICs) online advertising, continuous-time hidden Markov model, advertising response, dynamic transfer