系统管理学报

系统管理学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 463-476.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-4558.2025.02.013

• 大数据与信息管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

突发事件中多元主体如何生成舆情反转：敏感性、权威度和参与策略

谢起慧，席鹏莹，蔡子庆   

  1. 中国矿业大学（北京） 文法学院，北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2024-02-01 修回日期:2024-06-11 出版日期:2025-03-28 发布日期:2025-04-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金资助项目（21CGL045）

How Multiple Subjects Generate Reversal of Public Opinion in Emergencies: Sensitivity, Authority, and Participation Strategy

XIE Qihui，XI Pengying，CAI Ziqing   

  1. School of Law and Humanities, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2024-02-01 Revised:2024-06-11 Online:2025-03-28 Published:2025-04-15

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摘要： 突发事件中舆情反转的生成机理是网络舆情治理及现代政府危机管理中的关键问题。基于多元主体视角，通过文献综述建构了突发事件网络舆情反转的生成模型，将可能造成反转生成的多元主体分为事件主体和传播主体两类，提出事件主体的敏感性、传播主体的权威度和两类主体的参与策略会对舆情反转生成产生影响。选取2016~2023年期间的33个突发事件舆情反转案例，包括正向、负向反转两种类型。通过多案例的fsQCA分析，得到导致正向反转的8条路径和导致负向反转的3条路径。通过研究舆情反转生成机制，为现代政府应急管理提供了有益的理论支持和实践指导，并提出了突发事件舆情反转治理的对策与建议。

关键词: 舆情反转, 多元主体, 突发事件

Abstract: The generation mechanism of public opinion reversal in emergencies is a key issue in both network public opinion governance and modern government crisis management. This paper constructs a model to explain the generation of public opinion reversal in emergencies from the perspective of multiple subjects, based on a literature review. It categorizes the subjects involved in public opinion reversal into two groups: event subjects and dissemination subjects. It proposes that the sensitivity of event subjects, the authority of dissemination subjects, and the participation strategies employed by both types of subjects significantly impact the occurrence of public opinion reversal. By selecting 33 cases of sudden public opinion reversals from 2016 to 2023, including both positive and negative reversals, it identifies 8 pathways leading to positive reversal and 3 pathways leading to negative reversal through multi-case fsQCA (fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis). It provides valuable theoretical support and practical guidance for modern government emergency management. Additionally, it proposes countermeasures and suggestions for managing public opinion reversal in emergencies.

Key words: public opinion reversal, multiple subjects, emergencies

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