关键词:

突发事件, 应急响应决策, 前景理论, 概率语言术语, Jensen-Shannon散度

Abstract:

To address the problem of uncertainty in decision information and the difficulty of complete rationality of decision-makers in emergency response decision-making, a novel approach to emergency response decision-making is proposed based on the prospect theory and probabilistic linguistic terms. First, the evaluation of decision-makers is represented as probabilistic linguistic terms, and a similarity measure of probabilistic linguistic terms based on Jensen-Shannon divergence is proposed. Then, the prospect theory, which can describe the mental behavior of decision-makers, is applied to the probabilistic linguistic environment, and a prospect decision matrix is constructed by combining the proposed similarity measure of probabilistic linguistic terms. Afterwards, a criterion weight model is constructed with the idea of deviation minimization to calculate the criterion weights, based on which, the overall prospect value of each alternative is obtained by combining the prospect decision matrix with the criterion weights, and the ranking of each alternative is obtained. Finally, a maritime accident case illustrates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Key words:

emergencies, emergency response decision-making, prospect theory, probabilistic linguistic terms, Jensen-Shannon divergence