关键词: 突发事件, 行人流, 安全疏散, 贝叶斯纳什均衡, 多智能体仿真

Abstract:

While current studies paid little attention to effects of different types of emergencies on egress time, this paper classified emergencies into static ones and dynamic ones according to its types, and established a pedestrian flow model based on multi-agent simulation. In the model, the tunnel is divided into cells, with each pedestrian in a cell receiving a certain utility depending on the distance to the exit and the number of pedestrians in the cell. Then, each pedestrian uses the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium to search for the target cell with the maximum expected utility, takes collision avoidance action before moving into the target cell and then searches for the next target cell until he or she exits the tunnel. The simulation model is calibrated and validated from a real tunnel and is found to have a good consistency. Finally, based on the experimental data collected from different scenarios, it is concluded that close attention should be paid to the central part of the tunnel before emergencies occur, while after emergencies have occurred, pedestrians should be guided to react in a coordinated way, which is beneficial to the management of pedestrians in tunnels or some other venues.

Key words: emergency, pedestrian flow, safe egress, Bayesian-Nash equilibrium, multi-agent simulation