关键词: 物流路径关闭, 物流路径拥塞, 库存控制策略

Abstract: A supply chain consisting of a manufacturer (buyer), a supplier, and a customer faces the logistics path closure or congestion risks brought about by large activities in metropolis. The manufacturer runs in the policy of ‘order-up-to-level’ inventory under quantity uncertainty, customer order uncertain, and subsided by the government. A multi horizon Markov state updating model involves in the expected cost optimization when there is a state transfer between the state of logistics path closure or congestion and the normal state. An approximate optimal solution may be found in the optimal ‘order-up-to-level’ inventory. It is found that the best ‘order-up-to-level’ inventory is more affected by the mean of congestion quantity and customer order service level. It is also found that the ‘order-up-to-level’ inventory is little affected by government subsidies but can decrease expected inventory cost. The best way to reduce the risk of logistics path closure or congestion is to increase the order quantity.

Key words: logistics path closure, logistics path congestion, inventory control strategy