系统管理学报

系统管理学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 1342-1354.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-4558.2025.05.012

• 大数据与信息管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于社交媒体用户数据的突发事件舆情网络结构与谣言治理

王熹徽1,2，林佳雯1，汪翔2,3   

  1. 1.中国科学技术大学 管理学院，合肥 230026；2.应急仓储物流与救灾物资保障应急管理部重点实验室，北京 100054；3.华北科技学院 经济管理学院，河北 廊坊 065201
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-27 修回日期:2024-12-05 出版日期:2025-09-28 发布日期:2025-10-16
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（72071189，72101249）

Public Opinion Network Structure and Rumor Management in Emergencies Based on Social Media User Data

WANG Xihui1,2, LIN Jiawen1, WANG Xiang2,3   

  1. 1. School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Emergency Logistics and Supplies Provision, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100054, China; 3. School of Economics and Management, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Langfang 065201, Hebei, China
  • Received:2024-03-27 Revised:2024-12-05 Online:2025-09-28 Published:2025-10-16

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摘要： 社交媒体聚集各类用户，成为突发事件舆情传播的核心载体，同时也容易演变为谣言滋生地，给应急管理带来严峻挑战。基于“甘肃积石山6.2级地震”和“北京昌平线地铁事故”的社交媒体用户数据，运用社会网络分析方法（SNA）揭示两类突发事件舆情网络的结构特征与关键用户识别，并通过改进SHIR模型评估官方澄清机制和平台监管机制在不同网络环境中的谣言治理成效。研究显示：甘肃网络用户间以传递信息为主，聚焦灾情安危和救援物资；北京网络用户间则呈现互动讨论特征，关注事故原因和责任认定；两起突发事件均存在谣言潜伏点，仿真结果表明官方澄清与平台监管能有效抑制谣言扩散，但作用效果因事件性质存在差异。此外，关键用户作为“谣言澄清者”与官方合作时能提升官方澄清效果，而作为“谣言传播者”时则会加剧谣言负面影响，这要求平台强化用户管理。基于此，提出建议构建“官方-平台-关键用户”多元协同模式，根据突发事件类型开展针对性治理，营造健康的网络信息生态。

关键词: 突发事件, 舆情特征, 谣言治理, SHIR模型

Abstract: Social media attracts various users and becomes the core medium for the dissemination of public opinion during emergency events, yet it also tends to be a breeding ground for rumors, posing challenges to emergency management. This paper, utilizing the social network analysis (SNA) methods on data from social media users concerning the “6.2 magnitude earthquake in Jishishan, Gansu” and the “subway accident in Changping Line, Beijing” reveals the structural characteristics of public opinion networks in these two types of emergency events and identifies key users influencing information dissemination. Further, it expands the SHIR model to assess the effectiveness of official clarification mechanisms and platform regulation in different network settings for rumor management. The findings show that in the network in Gansu, user interactions focus on the transmission of information related to disaster safety and supplies while in the network in Beijing, interactions revolve around discussions of the causes and responsibilities of the accident. Both events exhibit potential hotspots for rumors. Simulations show that official clarifications and platform regulations can reduce the negative impacts of rumors, although their effectiveness varies by event type. Additionally, when key users act as “rumor clarifiers” in collaboration with officials, the effectiveness of official clarifications is enhanced. Conversely, when they act as “rumor spreaders”, the negative impacts of rumors intensify, necessitating stronger platform management. Therefore, it is suggested that an “Official-Platform-Key User” collaborative governance model should be established, tailored to the specific characteristics of different types of emergency events, to foster a healthy online information ecosystem.

Key words: emergency, public opinion characteristics, rumor management, SHIR model

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