系统管理学报

系统管理学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 928-938.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-4558.2026.04.004

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复杂不确定环境下重大建设工程管理韧性评价

王朵1，杨凯2，杨立兴2，付帅帅3，郑琰1，王维巧4   

  1. 1. 南京林业大学 汽车与交通工程学院，南京 210037；2. 北京交通大学 系统科学学院，北京100044；3. 南京林业大学 经济管理学院，南京 210037；4. 北京工业大学 城市交通学院，北京 100124
  • 收稿日期:2025-06-27 修回日期:2025-10-15 出版日期:2026-07-28 发布日期:2026-08-03
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(72501144,72502110,71942006);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项一般项目(2026JZDZ013)

Management Resilience Evaluation of Major Construction Project  in Complex and Uncertain Environments

Wang Duo1，Yang Kai 2，Yang Lixing 2，Fu Shuaishuai 3，Zheng Yan 1，Wang Weiqiao 4#br#   

  1. 1. College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering，Nanjing Forestry University，Nanjing 210037，China；2. School of System Science，Beijing Jiaotong University，Beijing 100044，China；3. College of Economics and Management，Nanjing Forestry University，Nanjing 210037，China；4. College of Metropolitan Transportation，Beijing University of Technology，Beijing 100124，China
  • Received:2025-06-27 Revised:2025-10-15 Online:2026-07-28 Published:2026-08-03

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摘要： 为识别复杂不确定环境下重大建设工程系统的弱项短板,亟需对其管理韧性开展评价研究。首先,针对重大建设工程,构建涵盖质量管理、物资管理、进度管理、安全管理、人员管理和合同管理6个维度的管理韧性评价指标体系;采用博弈论将层次分析法(AHP)与熵权法(EWM)相结合以确定指标权重,有效提升了权重赋值的科学性。其次,从系统的防御能力与恢复能力两个层面出发,设计基于二维云模型的管理韧性评价方法。进一步,借助 MATLAB实现定性与定量评估之间的转换,并通过计算贴近度确定管理韧性等级。最后,为验证模型的有效性与实用性,选取复杂艰险地区某铁路建设工程进行实证分析,结果表明,其管理韧性等级为中等,说明该工程的管理韧性水平处于较高区间。研究结论可为管理者制定面向复杂不确定环境的重大建设工程管理韧性提升策略提供决策依据。

关键词: 重大建设工程, 韧性评价, 博弈论, 组合赋权, 二维云模型

Abstract: To identify weaknesses in major construction projects system in complex and uncertain environments, it is essential to evaluate its management resilience. First, this paper constructs a resilience evaluation index system for major construction projects covering six dimensions: quality management, material management, progress management, safety management, personnel management, and contract management. A combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method (EWM) based on game theory is employed to determine indicator weights, thereby improving the scientific validity of weight allocation. Next, a management resilience evaluation method based on two-dimensional cloud model is proposed from the perspectives of defense capability and recovery capability. MATLAB is then used to achieve the conversion between qualitative and quantitative evaluations, and closeness calculations are conducted to determine management resilience of the major construction engineering. Finally, a railway construction project in a complex and hazardous area is selected for empirical analysis. The results indicate that the project’s resilience level is moderate, suggesting a relatively high level of management resilience. The findings provide decision-making support for managers seeking to improve resilience strategies for major projects in complex and uncertain environments.

Key words: major construction engineering, resilience evaluation, game theory, combination empowerment, two-dimensional cloud model

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