系统管理学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 961-971.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-4558.2026.04.007

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基于异质信息网络的西南地区铁路工程沿线灾害风险传播分析与评价

徐元熙,李克平,梁艳   

  1. 北京交通大学 系统科学学院,北京 100044
  • 收稿日期:2025-06-24 修回日期:2025-09-22 出版日期:2026-07-28 发布日期:2026-08-03
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71942006,72288101);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(L231009);轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室自主课题(北京交通大学)(RCS2021ZT001)

Disaster Risk Propagation Analysis and Assessment Along Railway Projects in Southwestern China Based on Heterogeneous Information Networks

Xu Yuanxi,Li Keping,Liang Yan   

  1. School of Systems Science,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing100044,China
  • Received:2025-06-24 Revised:2025-09-22 Online:2026-07-28 Published:2026-08-03

摘要: 西南地区铁路建设面临极为复杂艰险的自然环境,分析灾害风险间的潜在关联对工程建设设计与安全保障具有重要意义。针对实际工程中多源异构的非结构化灾害风险数据,本文构建了异质信息网络,旨在探究工程沿线地质、地理及环境等灾害风险间的多种潜在关系及其灾害风险链。该模型以西南地区铁路工程高风险区段的灾害风险为节点,以各风险间的潜在关系为边,通过网络拓扑指标的量化分析揭示风险间的关联关系,并利用网络辨识方法识别灾害风险链。计算结果表明,西南地区铁路沿线灾害风险呈现聚集性特征,部分灾害风险关联性较强,灾害易发区域发生其他灾害的概率较高,易形成灾害风险链。研究成果可为铁路工程灾害风险研判与评估提供科学支撑。

关键词: 异质信息网络, 西南地区, 铁路建设, 灾害风险, 风险传播

Abstract: Railway construction in Southwestern China faces extremely complex and hazardous natural environments. Analyzing potential relationships among disaster risks is crucial for engineering design and safety assurance. To address multi-source heterogeneous unstructured disaster risk data from actual projects in Southwestern China, this paper constructs a heterogeneous information network to explore various latent relationships and disaster risk chains among geological, geographical, and environmental risks along railway projects. The proposed model treats disaster risks in high-risk railway sections as nodes and the latent relationships among risks as edges. Quantitative analysis of network topology indicators reveals potential associations among disaster risks, while network identification methods are employed to identify disaster risk chains. The results indicate that disaster risks along railway projects in Southwest China exhibit clustering characteristics, with some risks strongly correlated, implying a higher probability of cascading disasters in vulnerable regions. This paper provides scientific support disaster risk assessment in railway engineering construction.

Key words: heterogeneous information network, Southwestern China, railway construction, disaster risk, risk propagation

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