关键词: 多阶段决策, 限时促销, 策略消费者, 预期后悔

Abstract: In recent years, time-limited promotional models such as the “Double Eleven” shopping festival have created mutual benefits for both consumers and merchants, while also exposing issues such as arbitrary promotion scheduling time setting and inaccurate pricing. To address these problems, this paper integrates consumer strategic behavior with multi-stage decision-making based on the theory of consumer anticipated regret, and constructs a multi-stage promotional decision model involving timing, frequency, and pricing strategies. By using actual customer flow data in shopping malls, the model optimizes merchants’ multi-stage strategies during sales periods. The results show that, by considering consumer strategic behavior, merchants can formulate appropriate time-limited promotional strategies to achieve market segmentation and increase profit. During the sales period, there exist optimal combinations of pricing, promotion frequency, and promotion timing for the merchants. The promotion frequencies should not be lower than the optimal value, and each promotion should not be excessively long. Further sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in consumer attrition coefficient has a negative impact on the merchant profits, in which case merchants should appropriately increase promotion frequency to avoid greater loss of profit. An increased proportion of strategic consumers help merchants segment markets and improve profits, though it has limited impact on the optimal promotion frequency. In addition, as consumers’ regret sensitivity increases, the utility they derive from purchasing products during low-price periods decreases, while merchants’ profits increases, and the optimal promotion frequency correspondingly decreases.

Key words: multi-stage decision-making, limited-time promotion, strategic consumers, anticipated regret