系统管理学报

系统管理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 549-560.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.03.015

• 运筹学与工业工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

前景理论、心理账户与报童趋中效应

顾波军1a，张祥2, 3，李艳玲1b   

  1. 浙江海洋大学 1a.经济与管理学院；1b.海洋科学与技术学院，浙江 舟山 316022；2.北京理工大学 管理与经济学院，北京 100081；3.北京经济社会可持续发展研究基地，北京 100081
  • 出版日期:2020-05-29 发布日期:2020-07-09
  • 作者简介:顾波军(1980—)，男，博士，副教授，研究方向为行为运作管理与供应链管理。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71872012，71372018）；教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（19YJC630044，19YJC630035）；浙江省自然科学基金一般项目（LY18G010016）；浙江省教育厅项目（Y201840337）；舟山市科技计划资助项目（2017C41018）；浙江海洋大学水产省一流学科开放课题（20160023）；浙江海洋学院海洋科学省重中之重学科开放课题（20130212）；浙江海洋大学科研启动项目（11085090318，11085090418）

Prospect Theory, Mental Accounting, and Newsvendor Pull-to-Center Effect

GU Bojun1a, ZHANG Xiang2, 3, LI Yanling1b   

  1. 1a. School of Economics and Management; 1b. School of Marine Science and Technology, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316000, Zhejiang, China; 2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; 3. Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing 100081, China
  • Online:2020-05-29 Published:2020-07-09

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摘要：

学界关于前景理论是否能够解释报童模型行为实验中出现的趋中效应依然存在疑问，研究从心理账户角度探索这一问题。首先，基于心理账户将前景理论拓展用于复合结果情形，提出了计算包含复合结果前景价值的理论模型；然后，基于该理论模型构建了前景理论基础的报童模型，发现零售商的订购决策由偏好的组合效应决定。通过数值算例研究，证实在偏好的特定组合下，前景理论能够解释报童趋中效应；研究还证实，前景理论的非线性权重函数对报童趋中效应具有反作用，报童趋中效应可归因于基于多重心理账户建构的价值函数。

关键词: 前景理论, 心理账户, 报童趋中效应

Abstract:

There still exist some questions about whether the prospect theory can explain the pull-to-center effect. This paper explored this problem from the perspective of the mental accounting theory. First, it extended the prospect theory to the compound-outcome condition and proposed a theoretical model for computing the value of prospects including the compound outcome based on the mental accounting theory. Then, it applied this model to the newsvendor problem, constructed a model for newsvendors based on the prospect-theory, and found that the ordering decision of retailers was decided by the combined effect of preferences. The numerical study shows that the prospect theory can explain the pull-to-center effect in certain combination of preference. Besides, the nonlinear weighting function of the prospect theory is counteractive to the pull-to-center effect, and the pull-to-center effect can be attributed to the value function formulated by multiple mental accounts.

Key words: prospect theory, mental accounting, newsvendor pull-to-center effect

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