关键词: 碳税, 低碳技术, 采纳时机, 最优停止等待, Stackelberg博弈

Abstract: In recent years, reducing carbon emissions has become a shared global challenge, requiring international cooperation and coordination. Multinational enterprises can lower carbon emissions during production by adopting low-carbon technologies; however, determining the optimal timing for adopting such technologies has become a key concern for firms. This paper builds a transnational manufacturing network influenced by carbon tax policies, consisting of an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and two contract manufacturers (CMs). By employing optimal stopping theory and game theory, it analyzes the critical and optimal production quantities for adopting low-carbon technologies under collaborative and Stackelberg decision-making scenarios, and explores the optimal timing for adoption. To mitigate the cost pressures from carbon taxes and rapidly increasing exchange rates, it proposes a cost-sharing contract. This contract effectively reduces international trade risk and helps the supply chain achieve optimal performance. The findings reveal that under collaborative decision-making, the critical production threshold for optimal stopping is affected by both carbon tax rates and market volatility. Raising the carbon tax rate lowers the threshold for investing in low-carbon technologies and accelerates their adoption; similarly, market stability also encourages adoption. Under Stackelberg decision-making, the optimal production quantity of firms is jointly influenced by exchange rates, carbon taxes, carbon emission volumes, and the carbon reduction efficiency of the low-carbon technology. As carbon taxes, exchange rates, and emission reduction efficiency increase, firms become more inclined to adopt low-carbon technologies. Overall, the government plays a vital role in promoting corporate adoption of low-carbon technologies and in advancing carbon emission reduction efforts.

Key words: carbon tax, low-carbon technologies, timing of adoption, optimal stopping waiting, Stackelberg game