关键词: 城市基础设施效益, 投资结构, 系统动力学, 耦合协调, 可持续发展

Abstract: Infrastructure plays a key role in the process of urbanization, and a reasonable choice of its investment structure is crucial for sustainable urban development. Considering the multi-system compound characteristics of infrastructure, system dynamics is combined with the coupling coordination theory to build a simulation model of urban infrastructure system benefits. By adjusting the parameters of the proportions of various infrastructure investment, four types of infrastructure investment scenarios with limited total investment are designed. The levels of coupling and coordination among infrastructure benefit subsystems in four scenarios in Beijing from 2018 to 2030 are simulated, and a reference for optimizing the infrastructure investment structure during the simulation period is proposed. The results show that there are differences in the level of coupling and coordination among infrastructure benefit subsystems, and the overall evolution shows an increasing trend which is from low coupling coordination to extremely coupling coordination. The level of coupling and coordination among urban infrastructure benefit subsystems under the balanced and current status continuation scenarios will perform best in the 2018 to 2027 period and the 2028 to 2030 period respectively, which are more conducive to promoting sustainable urban development. The parameters of the proportion of urban infrastructure investment in these two scenarios can be applied as a reference for urban infrastructure investment in the corresponding period.

Key words: urban infrastructure benefits, investment structure, system dynamics, coupling coordination, sustainable development