关键词:

应急决策, 专家自信度, 自信度调整, 突发事件响应等级

Abstract:

The systemic risk of social security incidents in China has become prominent under new situations, making it more difficult to judge the emergency response level. Aiming at the problem of inconsistent judgment of emergency response level among experts, a decision-making method considering self-confidence adjustment is proposed to judge emergency response level. The trust degree and familiarity degree provided by experts are used to construct a binary function to describe the trust relationship between experts, and the adjustment mechanism of self-confidence is established. By analyzing the uncertainty of expert judgment contained in incomplete confidence, the decision problem of emergency response level is modeled based on the evidence theory. On this basis, taking into account the importance of the source of evidence and its own credibility, a method for calculating the reliability of evidence considering decision-makers’ risk preferences is proposed to assign different importance to evidence. Then, the evidence discount combination method is used to fuse the judgements provided by experts. Finally, the practicality and superiority of the proposed method are verified by an example. The results show that the method proposed has a wider applicability, a higher credibility, and a stronger practicability than other common decision-making methods such as voting, and authority.

Key words:

emergency decision-making, expert confidence, confidence adjustment, response level of incidents