Abstract: With the implementation of the policy of opening to the outside world, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and inward foreign direct investment (IFDI), which is called two-way foreign direct investment (FDI), undoubtedly played an important role in the rapid growth of China’s economy. However, faced with the impact of the America’s re-industrialization strategy, whether two-way FDI can play its role and how to play its driving role in high-quality economic development are urgent questions to be answered. In this paper, based on the new economic growth theory, a model containing the two-way FDI theory of high quality and economic development was built combining the intermediary effect and the adjusting effect. The empirical test reveals that the mediating effect of industrial structure and technological innovation on the “twin-engine” in the impact of two-way FDI on the high-quality and economic development of the intermediary role and the moderating effect of the America’s re-industrialization strategy. At the same time, the Shapley’s value decomposition method was used to quantify the contribution ratios of different mediating roles. The results show that two-way FDI can significantly promote the high-quality development of China’s economy, and technological innovation plays a partial intermediary role, while the rationalization of industrial structure has a hiding effect in that process. The implementation of America’s re-industrialization strategy can not only directly influence the process of two-way FDI on the high-quality economic development, but also indirectly affect the high-quality economic development through regulating the influence of two-way FDI on the advanced industrial structure and technological innovation. The results of Shapley value decomposition indicate that the marginal effect of industrial structure on high-quality economic development is greater than that of technological innovation. The analysis of regional heterogeneity demonstrates that the rationalization of industrial structure has a covering effect in both coastal and inland areas, the advanced industrial structure only has a hiding effect in coastal areas, and the mediating effect of technological innovation is only established in coastal areas. There are significant differences between coastal and inland areas in the moderating effect of the America’s re-industrialization on two-way FDI. The research results are conducive to reveal the mechanism of two-way FDI on high-quality economic development and provide policy basis for effectively exerting the positive effect of two-way FDI on high-quality economic development in China.

Key words: American re-industrialization, two-way foreign direct investment (FDI), high-quality economic development, industrial structure, technology innovation

摘要： 随着对外开放政策的实施，对外直接投资（OFDI）和外商直接投资（IFDI），简称双向FDI，无疑对中国经济的高速增长发挥了重要作用，但是面对美国再工业化战略的冲击，双向FDI能否发挥以及如何发挥对经济高质量发展的驱动作用，是需要迫切解答的问题。以新经济增长理论为基础，构建包含双向FDI的经济高质量发展理论模型，并结合中介效应模型和调节效应模型，实证检验并揭示了产业结构和技术创新这对“双引擎”在双向FDI对经济高质量发展影响的中介作用以及美国再工业化战略的调节效应，采用夏普利值分解法量化了不同中介作用的贡献比例。研究结果表明：双向FDI能够显著促进中国经济高质量发展，技术创新在其中发挥了部分中介作用，而产业结构合理化存在遮掩效应；美国再工业化战略的实施既能直接调节双向FDI对经济高质量发展的影响，也能通过调节双向FDI对产业结构高级化和技术创新的影响，间接影响经济高质量发展；夏普利值分解结果显示，产业结构对经济高质量发展的边际效应大于技术创新的边际效应。通过区域异质性分析发现：产业结构合理化在沿海和内陆地区均存在遮掩效应，产业结构高级化仅在沿海地区存在遮掩效应，技术创新的中介作用仅在沿海地区成立；美国再工业化对双向FDI的调节作用在沿海和内陆地区均存在显著差异。研究结果有助于揭示双向FDI对经济高质量发展的作用机理，为有效发挥双向FDI对中国经济高质量发展的积极作用提供政策依据。

关键词: 美国再工业化, 双向FDI, 经济高质量发展, 产业结构, 技术创新