Table of Content

11 November 2022, Volume 31 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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From System Management to Complex Systems Management——Written on the 30th Anniversary of the Journal of Systems and Management SHENG Zhaohan 2022, 31 (6):  1031-1034.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.001 Abstract ( )   PDF (938KB) ( )   Systematicity is the basic attribute of all management activities, theories and problems. In this way, "system management" is a management paradigm based on the thinking principle of " systematicity ". At present, we are facing the profound change of the time, which is the origin of the most realistic management complexity of the present era. This important phenomenon is called the arrival of the era of complex systems management.Complex systems management is a management paradigm for a class of reductionist irreversibility problems in complex systems. Qian Xuesen's complex thoughts and complex system view are the core and deposits of complex systems management thought. Human management activities are shifting from system management to complex systems management. With its new connotation, complex systems management has become a new field of management with academic leadership, pioneering and solemnity. Related Articles

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Simulation Methodologies in Complex Systems: Challenges and Opportunities HONG LIU（HONG Jeff L） 2022, 31 (6):  1035-1040.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.002 Abstract ( )   PDF (959KB) ( )   With fast development of technologies and productivities in past decades, many present-day complex systems display two important characteristics: complexity and uncertainty, where complexity may be further characterized by being large-scale, inter-connected and dynamic. In this article we are argue that computer simulation is suitable tool to model complex systems and may be used to solve many of the complex-system management problems. However, the complexity and uncertainty of complex systems also pose significant challenges to today’s simulation tools in modeling, prediction as well as optimization. We argue that the fast-developing technologies, including high-performance computing, big data and artificial intelligence,provide tremendous opportunities to develop next-generation simulation tools that can address these challenges. Related Articles

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Problems and Challenges Faced by New Retail Operation Management ZHOU Yongwu, LI Fei 2022, 31 (6):  1041-1055.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.003 Abstract ( )   PDF (2822KB) ( )   Under the background of “Internet plus”, the physical retail market is gradually shrinking due to the siphoning of e-tailing on the one hand. On the other hand, the traffic dividend brought by the popularity of the Internet is decreasing year by year, which makes the development of e-tailing a bottleneck. Additionally, the joint drive of continuous technological innovation and constant upgrading of consumption has led to the emergence of a new retail with an in-depth integration of online, offline, and logistics, as the times require. This paper, by introducing the background and development trend of new retail, explains the concept of new retail and its essential features, analyzes the differences between new retail and traditional retail, and proposes new problems and opportunities for new retail operation management research based on the problems and challenges faced by new retail enterprises in actual operations and management. Related Articles

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Research Status of Supply Chain Development from the Perspective of Game Theory: A Comprehensive Discussion Based on Visualization Tools 2022, 31 (6):  1056-1074.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.004 Abstract ( )   PDF (9525KB) ( )   The development and vicissitude of supply chain have long been closely related to everyone in the modern society. Whether it is an active transformation towards sustainability and digitization, or a passive change in a turbulent world, the strength of supply chains that extend all over the world and go deep into production and life an all-round way has become one of the key factors in determining economic growth and enhancing international competitiveness. Game theory plays an important role in exploring the cooperative relationship between subjects in the supply chain, and the corresponding research results are numerous and rich in connotation. Based on a total of 3374 Chinese and English documents obtained from the academic journal database of China National Knowledge Infrastructure and the Web of Science core collection, a comprehensive bibliometric analysis is conducted using common visualization tools such as Vosviewer, CiteSpace, Bibliometrix, etc. On the one hand, the analysis results reveal the characteristics of research contributors including authors, journals, and institutions. On the other hand, specific analyses such as highly cited publications analysis, keyword co-occurrence analysis, keyword burst detection, and trend topics analysis are conducted to outline the distribution of research topics and hotspot changes in the field. Then, the status quo of China’s great contribution in this field and the fully rolled out green transformation of supply chain are detected. The development of supply chain in the digital era and the post-pandemic era has also been paid attention to and discussed. Related Articles

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Replenishment Management and Inventory Optimization in a Large International Consumer Electronics Supply Chain LI Zhaohui, ZHOU Shenghai, WAN Guohua 2022, 31 (6):  1084-1097.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.005 Abstract ( )   PDF (2238KB) ( )   This paper is concerned with distribution and inventory replenishment of a global consumer electronics manufacturing supply chain, which consists of a central warehouse, oversea central distribution centers, and retailers. Direct shipments from the central distribution centers to retailers leads to faster response but more risk of obsolete inventory, compared to shipment from central warehouse to the retailers by air transportation. The silent features of the problem such as lifecycle and sales pattern are analyzed in details, then demand forecasting model using real-time sales data, and the inventory replenishment optimization models are developed so as to tradeoff the service level and risks in the supply. Specifically, the demand forecast by machine learning algorithms is proposed, and considering the shipment paths, service levels, supply capacity and inventory levels, a nonlinear programming model to minimize the total quantity in the inventory system is developed. Moreover, the nonlinear programming model is then linearized as a linear programming model and the sample average approximation is employed to solve the problem. Also, a heuristic algorithm is proposed based on a modified base-stock policy. Numerical studies show that the heuristic algorithm can obtain results close to that of mathematical programming with much less computation effort. Compared with the real operations data, the proposed methods can effectively reduce inventory and increase the service level. Related Articles

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Stochastic Gradient Estimation and Its Application in System Management ZHANG Gongbo, LI Haidong, PENG Yijie 2022, 31 (6):  1084-1097.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.006 Abstract ( )   PDF (1777KB) ( )   With the deep integration and development of the information technology and system management, the Monte Carlo simulation technology and stochastic gradient estimation methods have attracted increasing attention in the system management. Gradient estimation is a critical tool for optimizing the structure of complex systems, inferencing complex systems parameters, and measuring and controlling risks. Since gradient estimation provides more useful information than system performance estimation, the accurate estimation of the stochastic gradient has been widely studied in the simulation literature, and it is a central issue in the gradient-based optimization methods. This paper provides an overview of the commonly used stochastic gradient estimation methods and introduces the main challenges, solution ideas, and insights into management for their applications in system management, to provide theoretical and methodological foundations for the system management. Related Articles

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Cooperative Operation Optimization for Transmission Inspection with Vehicle-Mounted UAV ZHAO Meng, ZHANG Bo, HU Xiangpei, HUANG Minfang 2022, 31 (6):  1098-1108.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.007 Abstract ( )   PDF (5314KB) ( )   Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has been widely used to replace the traditional manual inspection due to its safety, flexibility, and efficiency. However, the existing vehicle-mounted UAV and the support vehicle face many difficulties in electric inspection and with an excessive cost and a low efficiency. In this paper, the vehicle-mounted UAV cooperative operation problem (VUCOP) for transmission inspection is studied in detail by proposing an integrated vehicle-mounted UAV cooperative operation model based on the space-time network. To ensure the efficiency and accuracy of the solution approach, the Lagrangian relaxation based algorithm is proposed embedded with the greedy-rule based feasibility approach. The performance of the algorithm proposed is verified through a series of larger scale problems. Eventually, experiments of sensitive analysis are conducted to investigate the effect of the UAV battery capacity on optimal system operation strategy. This paper provides a scientific decision-making basis for improving the operation efficiency of the transmission inspection system of the vehicle-mounted UAV and reducing the management cost, and provides a novel optimization approach for effectively solving the problem of VUCOP. Related Articles

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Digital Platform Business Model Innovation: Overview and Prospect LIU Shan, ZHANG Fan, HUI Kangxin, MAO Hongyi 2022, 31 (6):  1109-1122.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.008 Abstract ( )   PDF (1913KB) ( )   It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the mechanism of digital platform business model innovation, but little is known about this issue in existing research. From the perspective of business model innovation process, and by defining the concept of digital platform and reviewing the literature, this paper discussed how to conduct business model innovation on digital platforms by focusing on platform boundary design and boundary resource deployment, and pointed out future research directions. It is concluded that the dual uncertainties of complementors and complements are the driving factors for digital platform business model innovation. The design of resources, complementors, and ecological boundaries is the core of the digital platform business model and an important means to manage the uncertainties of complementors that complements for promoting value co-creation. Boundary resources are the means to establish, manage, and maintain cross-boundary relationships, which can affect value creation and acquisition. Related Articles

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Spatiotemporal Evolution of Human Mobility Networks in China and Its Impact on COVID-19 Transmission SHI Feng, YUAN Yun, CAO Weiwei, JIA Jianmin 2022, 31 (6):  1123-1136.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.009 Abstract ( )   PDF (15514KB) ( )   Based on large-scale mobile signaling data in China during the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020, this paper constructs a nationwide mobility network to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of human mobility pattern under the ‘epidemic-Spring Festival’ dual influences and to empirically test the role of the characteristics of the mobility network structure in COVID-19 transmission. The results show that there exist an age and distance heterogeneity in the destruction of the pandemic to human mobility pattern. The pandemic has weakened the importance of core cities in the mobility network and reshaped the distribution law of mobility intensity among cities. The degree distribution in each phase generally follows a power-law distribution, with a low-degree saturation and a high-degree cutoff. The city heterogeneity of migration patterns among different age groups reveals that the work stress of residents in different cities is differentiated, which is more prominent in the young population. The results also demonstrate that there is a causal relationship between the topology of the mobility network and local epidemic transmission. The regression discontinuity in time is used to examine the partial mediation effects of degree centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality in the impact of quarantine policies on the local COVID-19 transmission. This paper provides a better understanding of mobility networks structure in determining the spread of major public health incident, which has important implications in theory and practice. Related Articles

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Is America’s Re-Industrialization a Blessing or a Curse: Can Two-Way FDI Promote China’s High-Quality Economy Development?—Based on the Mediating Role of Industrial Structure and Technological Innovation FU Guomei, TANG Jiafu 2022, 31 (6):  1137-1149.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.010 Abstract ( )   PDF (1118KB) ( )   With the implementation of the policy of opening to the outside world, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and inward foreign direct investment (IFDI), which is called two-way foreign direct investment (FDI), undoubtedly played an important role in the rapid growth of China’s economy. However, faced with the impact of the America’s re-industrialization strategy, whether two-way FDI can play its role and how to play its driving role in high-quality economic development are urgent questions to be answered. In this paper, based on the new economic growth theory, a model containing the two-way FDI theory of high quality and economic development was built combining the intermediary effect and the adjusting effect. The empirical test reveals that the mediating effect of industrial structure and technological innovation on the “twin-engine” in the impact of two-way FDI on the high-quality and economic development of the intermediary role and the moderating effect of the America’s re-industrialization strategy. At the same time, the Shapley’s value decomposition method was used to quantify the contribution ratios of different mediating roles. The results show that two-way FDI can significantly promote the high-quality development of China’s economy, and technological innovation plays a partial intermediary role, while the rationalization of industrial structure has a hiding effect in that process. The implementation of America’s re-industrialization strategy can not only directly influence the process of two-way FDI on the high-quality economic development, but also indirectly affect the high-quality economic development through regulating the influence of two-way FDI on the advanced industrial structure and technological innovation. The results of Shapley value decomposition indicate that the marginal effect of industrial structure on high-quality economic development is greater than that of technological innovation. The analysis of regional heterogeneity demonstrates that the rationalization of industrial structure has a covering effect in both coastal and inland areas, the advanced industrial structure only has a hiding effect in coastal areas, and the mediating effect of technological innovation is only established in coastal areas. There are significant differences between coastal and inland areas in the moderating effect of the America’s re-industrialization on two-way FDI. The research results are conducive to reveal the mechanism of two-way FDI on high-quality economic development and provide policy basis for effectively exerting the positive effect of two-way FDI on high-quality economic development in China. Related Articles

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Impact of Operational Slack on Organizational Resilience in the VUCA Context: The Mediating Role of Sustainable Innovation Capability WU Xiaobo, Feng Xiaoya 2022, 31 (6):  1150-1161.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.011 Abstract ( )   PDF (2377KB) ( )   Organizational resilience can help firms cope with crisis by reconfiguring their resources and processes. While it can be costly to keep and reduce profitability, organizational slack can also act as a buffer resource to ensure business sustainability. In today’s VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) environment, there is a demanding need for manufacturing companies to enhance their organizational resilience to ensure business sustainability. Simultaneously, this problem has attracted the increasing attention of scholars from different disciplines. This paper aims to study the impact of operational slack on organizational resilience and further probe the moderating effect of sustainable innovation capability. It evaluates the hypotheses using the secondary information of Chinese based publicly trade manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2020. The empirical analysis reveals that operational slack has a U-shaped impact on organizational resilience. The findings support the positive moderating role of sustainable innovation capability. Finally, based on the “resource-capability” theoretical framework, it identifies two key conditions that affect the relationship between operational slack and organizational resilience, providing academic guidance and decision-making suggestions for improving the organizational resilience of local manufacturing firms in the VUCA context. Related Articles

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Key Core Technologies and Their Tackling Strategies Based on the Perspective of Security and Stability on Industrial Chain and Supply Chain ZHONG Weijun, MEI Shu’e, PU Zhengning 2022, 31 (6):  1162-1168.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.012 Abstract ( )   PDF (1897KB) ( )   Breaking through key core technologies and improving the security and stability of the industrial chain and the supply chain of China’s important industries is a major strategic task related to national security and high-quality development. Based on the development reality that China is a late-developing country, this paper first explains the concept and characteristics of key core technologies from the perspective of industrial development and competition between countries, and clarifies different types of key core technologies such as the ones that “can restrict others” and the ones that “can be restricted by others”, the ones that “we do not have, but others do”, and the ones “we have, but others are better”. Then, it analyzes the ways to enhance the security and stability of the industrial chain and the supply chain and the corresponding key core technology tasks, and clarifies the need to simultaneously promote the key core technology research of the ones that “can restrict others” and the ones that “can be restricted by others”. Finally, it proposes the strategies to promote different kinds of key core technologies by developing high-quality new products with independent brands, alternative new products, disruptive new products, and brand-new products. Related Articles

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Crude Oil Price Forecasting: A 30-Year Literature Review and Future Directions ZHANG Yaojie, WANG Yudong 2022, 31 (6):  1169-1189.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.013 Abstract ( )   PDF (4451KB) ( )   Forecasting crude oil prices is an important research direction in the field of energy economics and asset pricing, and the interest in this topic is increasing year by year. This paper systematically reviews the related literature on crude oil price forecasting over the past 30 years. Specifically, we review and discuss the existing literature from the following four aspects: (1) the forecast target of crude oil prices; (2) the influence factors, predictive variables, and theoretical basis of crude oil prices; (3) the forecasting methods and models of crude oil prices; (4) the practical implications of crude oil price forecasting. Finally, according to current hotspots and future development trends, this paper provides three directions worthy of further research: first, using new forecasting information from climate risk; second, making full use of multi-source heterogeneous data; third, improving the interpretability of machine learning approaches. Related Articles

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Revisiting Financial Systemic Risks YANG Xiaoguang, WANG Yun 2022, 31 (6):  1190-1203.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.014 Abstract ( )   PDF (2757KB) ( )   This paper classifies systemic financial risks into three categories, i.e., endogenous risks, exogenous risks, and mixed risks. It proposes a theoretic framework to depict the endogenous systemic financial risk. It argues that the occurrence of endogenous systemic financial risks can be attributed to the accumulation and expansion of some idiosyncratic “key risk factors”, which have the characteristics of rapid expansion, excess return, no substantive progress and convergence. It gives a mathematical formulation to illustrate the evolution of the endogenous systemic financial risk model and a new formula to measure the risk. Finally, taking the real estate industry as an example, it demonstrates that the bubble in real estate market can be interpreted as the key risk factor in China’s economy. Related Articles

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Financial Distress Prediction Based on Textual Risk Disclosures in Financial Reports SUN Hao, ZHU Xiaoqian, LI Jianping 2022, 31 (6):  1204-1215.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.06.015 Abstract ( )   PDF (3338KB) ( )   The textual risk disclosures in corporate financial reports, which can more directly and proactively describe corporate potentially important risk factors than other types of texts, were seldom considered by most existing studies on financial distress prediction. This paper innovatively introduces the textual risk disclosures for financial distress prediction, constructs a novel textual feature which can reflect the likelihood that the risks would impact the corporate—risk likelihood, and then builds prediction models based on machine learning methods. Based on the 35706 firm-year observations in the United States from 2006 to 2020, the empirical study demonstrates that, based on the common quantitative indicators (financial and market variables), incorporating the textual risk disclosures can significantly improve the performance of financial distress prediction. Compared with commonly used textual features, the risk likelihood feature proposed has the highest importance in financial distress prediction. The financial distress prediction ability of quantitative indicators decreases as the time horizon of financial distress prediction increases, while the predictive ability of textual risk disclosures has not declined, but has, instead, also shown a more significant improvement. This paper can help market investors and regulators understand the interpretation of textual risk disclosures in financial reports, and provides a theoretical guidance for integrating textual disclosure into financial distress prediction. Related Articles