Abstract:

Based on the theory of overconfidence, this paper investigates a problem of capacity management involving initial stock and capacity allocation for a class of items with investment properties. The problem is formulated as a two-period MDP model under the assumptions of random demand and exogenously given prices. A threshold value is found on price variation. A combination of the theoretical analysis and the numerical example indicate that whether the effect of overconfidence on capacity management is positive or negative depends on the extent of price rise. When the price increases beyond the threshold value, overconfidence leads to the loss of expected sales profit. On the contrary, an appropriate extent of overconfidence helps to increase sales profit. At the same time, it is found that demand variation strengthens the effect of overconfidence on capacity management. Besides, capacity management via allocation sale helps to relieve the risk of capacity investment resulted from overconfidence.

Key words: revenue management, capacity control, overconfidence, random demand

摘要：

基于过度自信理论和针对一般具有投资属性的产品，研究了初始库存和分期销售容量管理问题。假设需求随机且价格外生，构建了问题的两阶段MDP模型。通过对模型的优化分析，找到了一阈值。最后，结合算例分析发现：过度自信对容量管理策略影响的正/负效应依赖于价格上涨幅度，当两阶段的价格上涨幅度超过阈值时，过度自信会导致期望利润的损失；反之，一定程度的过度自信有助于期望利润的提高；同时，需求变动对过度自信效应起放大作用；此外，分期销售的容量管理策略有助于减轻由过度自信所引致的容量投资风险。

关键词: 收益管理, 容量控制, 过度自信, 随机需求