Abstract: With the global warming, the frequency and intensity of drought disasters increase, which seriously threatens agricultural production. Therefore, how to ensure the smooth and efficient agricultural drought emergency disposal process and improve the efficiency of agricultural drought emergency disposal is the key to reduce the loss of agricultural production. In this paper, from a perspective of information flow, the agricultural drought emergency management process is analyzed based on OODA (observation, orientation, decision, and action). According to the characteristics of agricultural drought and emergency response, a multi-department collaborative emergency response process for agricultural drought is established. Based on the stochastic petri net (SPN), the simulation model of the multi-department cooperative agricultural drought emergency response process is constructed. The performance of the system is analyzed by using the isomorphic Markov chain, and the key link and its disposal time are determined. Finally, taking Bayannur of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an example, the efficiency of the agricultural drought emergency response process is analyzed, and the key links and their response time are determined. The results show that the multi-department collaborative emergency response process of agricultural drought can shorten the emergency time. Taking the drought relief emergency in Bayannur in 2018 as an example, the drought relief time is shortened from more than half a month to about 11.5 days. In each link, information release is easy to cause information jam, and finding an emergency water source is the most time-consuming link. Besides, improving the disposal efficiency of the key link will further improve the efficiency of drought emergency response. Starting the emergency plan is the key link which has the greatest impact on the total time of drought response. Reducing the average implementation time of this link to 1/15 day can further shorten the drought relief time by 2.5 days.

Key words: agricultural drought, emergency process, multi-department collaborative, stochastic petri net (SPN), Markov chain

摘要： 随着全球气候变暖，干旱灾害发生频次和强度增加，严重威胁到农业生产。如何保证农业抗旱应急处置流程的顺畅高效，提高农业抗旱应急处置效率，是减少农业生产损失的关键。首先，从信息流的角度，基于OODA环分析了农业抗旱应急管理流程的各个阶段。针对农业旱灾及应急抗旱的特点，建立了多部门协同农业抗旱应急处置流程，基于随机Petri网构建了多部门协同农业抗旱应急处置流程仿真模型，通过同构马尔可夫链分析该系统性能，进一步提出关键环节及处置时间的确定方法。最后，以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市为例，分析农业抗旱应急处置流程的效率，确定关键环节及其处置时间。结果表明：① 本文提出的多部门协同农业抗旱应急处置流程可以缩短应急时间。以巴彦淖尔市2018年的抗旱应急为例，抗旱时间从半个多月缩短为约11.5天。在各环节中，信息发布是容易造成信息堵塞的环节，寻找应急水源是最耗时的环节。② 提高关键环节的应急处置效率，将进一步提高应急抗旱的效率。对抗旱应急总时间影响最大的启动应急预案是关键环节，将该环节的平均实施时间缩短为1/15天，可以将抗旱时间进一步缩短2.5天。

关键词: 农业旱灾, 应急流程, 多部门协同, 随机Petri网, 马尔科夫链