Abstract: Based on the suspension and restart of 'New Fortune Best Analysts', this paper studies the impact of star analyst appraisal on the financial analysis industry by using the difference-in-difference (DID) framework and other methods. It is found that rating becomes more effective after the suspension. while optimistic bias is larger, and the degree of diligence is lower among analysts. Due to the reform and restart of 'New Fortune', rating becomes even more effective after the restart, the optimistic bias of analysts decreases, but the degree of diligence increases. These results indicate that even though there are some drawbacks, the appraisal of star analyst generally improves the industry. The correct way to deal with the problems caused by analyst selection should be to improve the selection system and strengthen the self-discipline of the industry rather than suspend the selection mechanism.

Key words: analyst, event study, new fortune, difference-in-difference （DID）

摘要： 以“新财富最佳分析师”的停办与重启为事件, 使用双重差分等方法探究了分析师评选对我国证券分析行业发展的影响。研究发现：评选停办后虽然分析师评级水平出现上升, 但行业乐观偏差变大,勤勉程度下降;在评选整改重启后, 分析师评级水平因评选机制的改进与激励作用再次提升, 同时乐观偏差下降,勤勉程度上升。上述实证结果证明, 证券明星分析师评选制度虽存在一定问题, 但对提升分析师的整体业务水平仍然利大于弊。处理分析师评选引发问题的正确思路应是改进评选制度、加强行业自律, 而非搁置评选机制。

关键词: 分析师, 事件分析, 新财富, 双重差分