Abstract: Infrastructure plays a key role in the process of urbanization, and a reasonable choice of its investment structure is crucial for sustainable urban development. Considering the multi-system compound characteristics of infrastructure, system dynamics is combined with the coupling coordination theory to build a simulation model of urban infrastructure system benefits. By adjusting the parameters of the proportions of various infrastructure investment, four types of infrastructure investment scenarios with limited total investment are designed. The levels of coupling and coordination among infrastructure benefit subsystems in four scenarios in Beijing from 2018 to 2030 are simulated, and a reference for optimizing the infrastructure investment structure during the simulation period is proposed. The results show that there are differences in the level of coupling and coordination among infrastructure benefit subsystems, and the overall evolution shows an increasing trend which is from low coupling coordination to extremely coupling coordination. The level of coupling and coordination among urban infrastructure benefit subsystems under the balanced and current status continuation scenarios will perform best in the 2018 to 2027 period and the 2028 to 2030 period respectively, which are more conducive to promoting sustainable urban development. The parameters of the proportion of urban infrastructure investment in these two scenarios can be applied as a reference for urban infrastructure investment in the corresponding period.

Key words: urban infrastructure benefits, investment structure, system dynamics, coupling coordination, sustainable development

摘要： 基础设施在城市化进程中扮演着关键作用，合理选择基础设施投资结构对于城市可持续发展至关重要。鉴于基础设施的多系统复合特征，结合系统动力学和耦合协调理论，构建了城市基础设施系统效益仿真模型，通过调整各类基础设施投资占比参数，设计出资金投入总额有限下的4种基础设施投资情景，模拟了北京市2018~2030年4种情景下基础设施效益子系统间耦合协调水平，提出了在模拟期内优化基础设施投资结构的参考方案。结果表明：2018~2030年4种情景下基础设施效益子系统间耦合协调水平存在差异，整体处于上升状态，由低度耦合协调演变为极度耦合协调；均衡兼顾型和现状延续型情景下的城市基础设施效益子系统间耦合协调水平分别在2018~2027年和2028~2030年两个时段内表现最优，更有利于推动城市可持续发展，可将此两种情景下的城市各类基础设施投资占比参数作为相应时段内城市基础设施投资的参考方案。

关键词: 城市基础设施效益, 投资结构, 系统动力学, 耦合协调, 可持续发展