Abstract:

Mobile cabin hospitals played an important role in the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Wuhan. However, few studies focus on the optimization of capacity allocation of mobile cabin hospitals, especially from the perspective of equity and spatially explicit optimization. To reconstruct the scenario of mobile cabin hospitals in Wuhan, this paper defines the fairness function first by considering comparison psychology so as to describe the lack of equity perception in the pandemic area. Then, it proposes the optimal capacity allocation model of mobile cabin hospitals considering comparative equity. By using the intermediate variable, the number of patients with mild symptoms that can be accepted for treatment, the proposed model can effectively describe the interaction coupling between the allocation and the pandemic dynamics of mobile cabin hospitals. Compared with the scenario without considering equity, the time-space construction process of mobile cabin hospitals after considering equity is closer to the actual process in Wuhan, while the number of beds required is rather less than actually required. Moreover, by considering equity, the cumulative number of infections is less, and the goal of “all those in need can be treated” could be completed earlier while the proportion of budget allocation is stable. Finally, this paper proposes that the starting time of setting mobile cabin hospitals is very important, while emergency budget has an obvious diminishing effect of marginal utility.

Key words:

pandemic outbreak; mobile cabin hospital, capacity allocation, comparative equity, optimization

摘要：

方舱医院在武汉应对新冠肺炎疫情的防控阻击战中发挥了重要作用，现有研究还鲜有从公平视角探讨方舱医院扩容的时间-空间优化分布问题。以武汉方舱医院床位扩容过程情景重建为研究对象，首先界定了考虑攀比心理的公平函数用于刻画疫区民众的公平感知缺失程度，继而建立重大突发疫情中考虑攀比公平的方舱医院容量配置优化模型，借助可接收的轻型感染者数量这一中间变量，有效刻画方舱医院容量配置与疫情扩散演化之间的交互耦合作用。测试结果表明：相较于未考虑公平性，考虑公平因素后的方舱医院建设时间-空间分布与武汉疫情期间的方舱医院实际扩容过程更加接近，且较实际所需的床位数更少；不仅如此，考虑公平因素后的累计感染人数更少，能够更早完成“应收尽收”目标且应急预算分配比例稳定。此外，研究还发现，方舱医院的设置起始时间非常重要，而应急预算的投入则存在较为明显的边际效用递减效应。

关键词:

突发疫情, 方舱医院, 容量配置, 攀比公平, 优化