Abstract: Based on 52 independent studies and 33424 individual samples, meta-analysis is used to calculate the overall effect of agricultural subsidies on green production and assess the overall effect size while meta-regression is used to investigate the moderating effect of agricultural subsidies on green production across five dimensions: regional, policy, production, period, and method. The results show that in the regional dimension, subsidy policies in non-grain-producing regions have a more promoting effect on green production than those in major grain-producing regions. In the policy dimension, green agricultural subsidy policies are more effective in promoting green production than traditional agricultural subsidy policies. In the production dimension, subsidy policies encourage farmers to adopt green production technologies, making them more likely to pursue green production. In the period dimension, after the establishment of a green ecology-oriented agricultural subsidy policy system in 2020, the effectiveness of agricultural subsidies in promoting green production has improved. In the method dimension, the types of econometric models used in the study have a moderating effect on the relationship between agricultural subsidy policies and farmers green production. These findings can provide a theoretical basis for the transformation and upgrading of China’s agricultural subsidy policy system.

Key words: agricultural subsidy policy, farmers’ green production, meta-analysis, meta-regression, moderating effect

摘要： 针对现有研究对农业补贴政策的绿色促进效果存在争议的问题，基于52篇实证文献，33424个独立样本，运用Meta分析方法，计算农业补贴绿色促进效果的综合效应值；运用Meta回归方法，从地区层面、政策层面、生产层面、时期层面和方法层面5个维度，探究农业补贴政策对农户绿色生产存在的调节效应，分析异质性来源。研究结果表明：地区维度显示，非粮食主产区的补贴政策对绿色生产促进效果优于粮食主产区；政策维度显示，绿色农业补贴政策比传统农业补贴政策的绿色促进效果更好；生产维度显示，在补贴政策的惠及下，农户更愿意通过引入绿色生产技术的方式实现绿色生产；时期维度显示，2020年基本建成以绿色生态为导向的农业补贴政策体系后，农业补贴的绿色促进效果更好；方法维度显示，研究使用的计量模型种类在农业补贴政策对农户绿色生产影响的研究中具有调节效应。所得结论能够为我国农业补贴政策体系的转型升级实践提供理论依据。

关键词: 农业补贴政策, 农户绿色生产, Meta分析, Meta回归, 调节效应