Abstract: Online reviews significantly affect consumer decision-making and supply chain operations. This paper uses Bayesian information updating to characterize the influences of online reviews on consumer purchasing decisions and utilizes game theory to explore the influence of existence of online reviews on supply chain operations and product quality. The results show that when the manufacturer is unable to adjust the product quality (i.e., quality is exogenous), online reviews can effectively help consumers reduce the high return rate caused by the uncertainty of product quality information; online reviews increase the profits of the manufacturer and retailer and improve consumer and social welfare if and only if the accuracy of product online reviews is sufficiently high. When the manufacturer can strategically adjust product quality (i.e., quality is endogenous), online reviews not only incentivize the manufacturer to improve product quality but also lead to a Pareto-optimal outcome for both the supply chain members and consumers.

Key words: online reviews, Bayesian updating, supply chain operation, new retail, consumer choice model

摘要： 随着信息技术的发展，在线评论已成为新零售商业模式下消费者购物前的重要参考信息。基于贝叶斯信息更新理论，刻画了在线评论对消费者的影响，构建斯塔克尔伯格博弈模型，探究其对体验型产品质量水平及供应链运营决策的作用。研究表明：当制造商无法快速调节产品质量（质量外生）时，在线评论可以缓解质量信息不对称导致的高退货率。若在线评论信息准确度高于阈值，则能提高制造商、零售商利润及消费者福利；否则，将损害供应链各方效益。当制造商能够灵活调整产品质量（质量内生）时，在线评论不仅能激励制造商提升产品质量水平，还可实现供应链与消费者的帕累托最优。

关键词: 在线评论, 贝叶斯更新, 供应链运营, 新零售, 消费者选择模型