系统管理学报

Journal of Systems & Management ›› 2019, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 1116-1125.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2019.06.012

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Bullwhip Effect and Inventory Deviation in Coal-Electricity Supply Chain with Uniform Distribution of Adaptive Bidding Factor

HOU Linna1,2, SUN Jingchun1   

  1. 1. School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China; 2. School of Economics and Management, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710054, China
  • Online:2019-11-28 Published:2020-01-15

自适应报价因子均匀分布时的煤电供应链牛鞭效应及库存偏差

侯琳娜1,2，孙静春1   

  1. 1. 西安交通大学管理学院，西安 710049； 2. 西安理工大学经济与管理学院，西安 710054
  • 作者简介:侯琳娜(1979-)，女，博士生。研究方向为煤电供应链。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71372164)；

    陕西省自然科学基金资助项目（2017JM7013）；

    陕西省社会科学基金资助项目（2017S010）

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Abstract: By constructing a two-level supply chain composed of a coal company and competitive power plants, this paper discusses the bullwhip effect in a coal- electricity supply chain and inventory deviation of power plants which adapt adaptive strategies with evenly distributed bidding parameters. The results show that not only the bullwhip effect but also the inventory deviation worsen when some power plants take the actual bidding prices in the last period as the bidding prices in this period. On the contrary, when the power plants pay more attention to the optimal bidding prices in the previous period, it will be helpful to restrain the bullwhip effect and inventory deviation. At this time, the consistency of bidding decision preferences is beneficial to weaken bullwhip effect and improve the state of inventory.

Key words: bullwhip effect, inventory deviation, adaptive bidding strategy, uniform distribution, coal-electricity supply chain

摘要： 通过构建煤炭企业和竞争型燃煤电厂组成的二级供应链，讨论了电厂采用自适应报价策略竞价时煤电供应链的牛鞭效应。结果发现：无论风电是否并网，报价因子均匀分布时，电厂偏好往期最优报价的决策产生的牛鞭效应比偏好固定报价小，并且此时各电厂的库存接近最优水平，报价决策偏好的一致性有利于削弱牛鞭效应的同时降低库存偏差。

关键词: 牛鞭效应, 库存偏差, 自适应报价策略, 均匀分布, 煤电供应链

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