Abstract: In recent years, supply chain disruption risks caused by large-scale major events (activities) in metropolis have increased, which poses challenges to supply chain management. In the case of supply chain disruption with changing demand, a production-inventory system consisting of raw material suppliers, manufacturers, and contingency suppliers for outsourcing finished products is affected by some variables such as disruption parameters, demand lost rate, and transfer delay of core technology. To find the optimal contingency polices, a system dynamics model was introduced to simulate its operations under supply disruption risk and optimize the “order-up-to-level” inventory and the whole profit objective function. It was found that when the length of the interrupt cycle is different, the market demand lost rate varies with the length of the delivery disruption, which impacts the choice of contingency polices on supply disruption risk. Besides, the loss of long-term profit can be reduced by adjusting the level of contingency inventory and shortening the delay of contingency decision information.

Key words: supply chain disruption risk, contingency policies, system dynamics

摘要： 近年来，城市大型活动引发供应链中断的现象越来越普遍，给供应链管理带来挑战。在市场需求可变的情形下，一个由原材料供应商、制造商和产品生产转包应急供应商组成的生产库存系统，受有关中断参数、市场需求流失率以及核心技术延迟时间等因素的影响。为了找到系统的最优应急策略，引入系统动力学模型来对系统的运营进行仿真分析，以优化供应中断风险下“订货到水平”库存，并最大化厂商利润。发现，当中断周期长度不同时，市场流失率因交付中断周期长度不同而变化，影响厂商应对供应中断风险的应急策略选择；厂商的长期利润损失可以通过调整应急库存水平和缩短应急决策信息延迟等策略来减少。

关键词: 供应链中断风险, 应急运作, 系统动力学