Abstract:

Because of the incomplete information in the last-mile delivery service system, customers often compete with each other, since they have only bounded rationality, which creates congestion. From the perspective of customer expected utility, the queuing model for pickup service and home delivery service was proposed considering factors such as customer pickup distance and delivery. Bounded rationality was depicted based on quantal response equilibrium in which customers could not make accurate calculations of their expected loss or waiting utility. Then, the existence and uniqueness of Logit equilibrium in the last-mile delivery service system were proved and the impacts of customer rationality, pickup distance, and charge on the equilibrium were analyzed. Furthermore, from the perspective of a bus company, the profit-maximization model under the condition of customer bounded rationality was built. Simulation experiments show that ignoring customer bounded rationality can result in a significant revenue loss of bus companies.

Key words: bounded rationality, last-mile delivery service, customer behavior, Logit equilibrium, queuing

摘要：

最后一公里配送服务系统中存在不完备信息，顾客互相竞争，彼此造成拥堵，表现出有限理性行为。从顾客期望效用角度，考虑顾客取货距离和运费等因素，运用排队模型描述了顾客自提和送货上门两种配送服务。基于随机最优反应均衡，刻画了顾客无法准确计算他们的期待损失或者等待效用的有限理性，证明了最后一公里配送服务系统存在Logit均衡且均衡唯一，并分析了顾客理性程度、取货距离和运费对均衡的影响。从企业的视角，构建了顾客有限理性条件下企业利润最大化模型。仿真实验揭示了忽视顾客有限理性将对企业造成重大的利润损失。

关键词: 有限理性, 最后一公里配送服务, 顾客行为, Logit均衡, 排队