Journal of Systems & Management ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 608-615.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.03.021

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Logistics Scheme Selection Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

LI Yanlai1, Ying Chengshuo2   

  1. 1.Business School, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110136, China 2.Department of System Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
  • Online:2020-05-29 Published:2020-07-09

基于累积前景理论的物流方案选择方法

李延来1,应程铄2
  

  1. 1.辽宁大学 商学院,沈阳 110136 2.香港城市大学  系统工程与工程管理系,香港 999077
  • 通讯作者: 应程铄(1995-),男,直博生
  • 作者简介:李延来(1971-),男,博士(后),教授,博士生导师。研究方向为物流规划、产品研发和生产运作管理
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71371156,71872153)

Abstract:

To effectively reflect decision makers’ aspirations and behaviors in the process of logistics scheme selection, an approach of logistics scheme selection based on the cumulative prospect theory and the multiple attribute decision making theory was proposed. First, psychological behavior factors of decision makers are considered, and the aspiration of decision makers with respect to each attribute was chosen as the corresponding reference. Next, decision matrixes with clear numbers, interval numbers, and linguistic assessment terms were transformed into the corresponding decision matrixes of gains or losses relative to the set references. Finally, the comprehensive prospect value of each scheme was calculated based on the cumulative prospect theory considering the different risk attitudes of decision makers to gains and losses, and a ranking of logistics scheme alternatives was determined based on the comprehensive prospect values obtained. An example was given to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the approach proposed.

Key words: logistics scheme, cumulative prospect theory, aspriation, priority

摘要:

为了有效反映物流方案选择过程中决策者期望和行为的特征,提出基于累积前景理论和混合多属性决策理论的物流方案选择方法。该方法首先考虑决策者的心理行为因素,将决策者对物流方案中每一个属性的期望作为相应属性的参照点;其次,根据已设定的参照点,将具有清晰数、区间数和语言短语3种信息形式的决策矩阵转化为相对于参照点的益损决策矩阵;最后,考虑决策者对待收益和损失的不同风险态度,依据累积前景理论计算各个方案的综合前景值,进而根据各个物流方案的综合前景值确定其优先度。通过一个实例验证了本文方法的有效性和合理性。

关键词: 物流方案, 累积前景理论, 期望, 优先度

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