Abstract: This paper aims to study the impact of potential brand crisis upon dynamic quality and marketing decisions in a dual-channel supply chain system consisting of a manufacturer, an online retailer, and an offline retailer. To this end, it constructs a dynamic dual-channel supply chain model potentially confronted by a random brand crisis. By employing the Bellman dynamic programming theory, it derives the optimal decisions of supply chain members on both pre- and post-crisis stages. The results show that the manufacturer’s quality investment and online retailer’s advertising investment are lower than those with no crisis while offline retailer’s promotion investment will not be affected by the crisis. If the long term effect of the crisis outweighs its short term effect, the manufacturer and the online retailer should lower their investment after the crisis but if the long term effect is less dominant than the short term effect, the manufacturer and the online retailer have to refer to the value of hazard rate before making their decision after the crisis. The manufacturer’s cost-sharing strategy can not only boost online retailer’s advertising investment but also enhance his own quality investment. This paper depicts the brand crisis by introducing the random occurrence process and relax the usual assumption that goodwill is always continuous during the whole planning period. Based on these work, it conducts the study of brand crisis in the dual-channel supply chain.

Key words: dual-channel supply chain, brand crisis, differential game, quality, marketing

摘要： 针对一个由制造商、线上零售商和线下零售商构成的双渠道供应链系统，对品牌危机预期下的动态质量和营销决策进行研究。为此，构建了随机危机冲击下的动态双渠道供应链模型，利用贝尔曼动态规划原理分别求解了供应链成员危机前后的最优决策和利润。研究发现：与没有危机时的情形相比，危机前后制造商的质量投入和线上零售商的广告投入均低于没有危机时的情形，而危机前后线下零售商的促销决策与没有危机时的情形相同；如果危机的长期影响大于其所产生的短期影响，那么，在危机发生后制造商和线上零售商应该降低其投入水平，反之，双方在决定危机后的投入水平时还应考虑危机发生率的大小；制造商的成本分担决策不仅能够增加线上零售商的广告投入，还能促使自身增加质量投入，最终实现成员利润的帕累托改进。研究利用随机到达过程刻画了危机的发生，并放松了商誉在计划期内总是连续的假设。在此基础上，针对双渠道供应链中的品牌危机问题进行了研究。

关键词: 双渠道供应链, 品牌危机, 微分博弈, 质量, 营销