Abstract:

The utilization of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation and electricity storage battery is the most important method to reach the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality by transforming the energy structure in China. Compared with the popularization of centralized PV grid-connected plant, the household distributed PV system is in the transition period from starting to commercialization. This paper, by considering the residents living in a community and developers who plan to invest in a PV generation/storage micro-grid system when constructing buildings for the community, establishes a two-layer mathematical model for the leader-follower game, in which the autonomous behavior pattern of stakeholders is the core. In the outer layer, the developer needs to decide the capacity size and selling price of the micro-grid system in order to maximize its profit. In the inner layer, the residents in the community need to decide whether they should agree with the construction of the micro-grid system by considering the difference between the electricity bill before the construction and that after joining the framework. In addition, the residents will not only change their power consumption behavior to maximize benefits, but also pay attention to the fairness when they use the micro-grid system. Through solving the model and analyzing the relationship between the two sides of the game, it can be seen that the developer and residents of all walks of life can benefit from the project considering the current market data only if the system configuration is designed well and coordinated with the weather conditions of better sunshine intensity. Some managerial insights can be obtained as follows. First, the households with a higher power consumption benefit more from the micro-grid system in different types of residents. Secondly, although the PV subsidies of the government can greatly increase the revenue of the system developer, it does not promote the increase of installed capacity, nor does it bring more benefits to the residents. Finally, the unified management of micro-grid can bring more benefits to both sides and encourage the developer to build larger installations compared with the independent operation mode, which shows the advantage of sharing facilities in the community.

Key words: low carbon community, solar power, system design, leader-follower game

摘要：

分布式光伏发电与储能技术的开发利用已经成为当前双碳战略目标下实现能源结构转型的重要途径，而国内户用分布式光伏发电系统的商业化推广正处于从起步逐渐转到成熟的过渡期。以具有可持续发展理念的计划投资建设微电网的开发商与社区用户为对象，聚焦考虑利益相关者自主行为模式的系统设计研究，建立了基于主从博弈的双层规划数学模型。在外层，开发商以利益最大化为目标，决策微电网系统的容量规模、系统售价，并提出相应的系统运行框架；在内层，社区内各居民用户在利益最大化与公平性的考虑基础上优化自身在微电网系统中的用电行为，并通过对比参与微电网系统前后的电费支出决定是否支持该系统的投建。通过求解模型、分析博弈双方利益关系可知，在目前的市场数据下，开发商只有设计最优的系统配置，配合日照强度较好的气候条件，才可能让企业自身与各类居民都从项目中获益。同时，不同类型的居民中，用电度数更高的家庭从微电网系统中获益更多；在开发商做主导的市场结构下，政府的光伏补贴将大幅提高系统开发商的收益，却没有促进装机规模的提升，也并未给居民用户带来更多收益；集中管理的微电网运营模式相比各户独立的运营模式能为各方带来更多收益，也促使开发商投产更大的装机规模。

关键词:

低碳社区, 光储微电网, 系统设计, 主从博弈