Abstract: From the intersecting perspective of carbon price volatility and market panic sentiment, and based on complex network theory, this paper develops a risk contagion model for corporate carbon trading networks under a coordinated carbon tax–carbon trading strategy. It theoretically analyzes how carbon prices and market panic influence counterparty risk contagion in carbon trading and simulates the disturbance effects of carbon price fluctuations, market panic intensity, and herd behavior. The findings indicate that under conditions of fluctuating compliance periods and insufficient carbon allowance fulfillment, the number of corporate bankruptcies exhibits an upward trend with volatility, leading to the largest scale of carbon trading counterparty risk contagion. In the same scenario, heterogeneity in asset size significantly affects the number of bankruptcies. Enhancing carbon risk awareness and consumer green preferences, along with reducing asset sell-offs and noise, and coordinating with moderate levels of negative media disclosure, information dissemination, and policy risk control, can effectively suppress counterparty risk contagion in carbon trading networks. When the carbon tax rate and the optimal carbon price under the coordinated carbon tax–trading strategy reach the same level, the emission reduction effect of the coordinated strategy is maximized, and the interactive effects among carbon price determinants have the least impact on counterparty risk contagion. Market panic sentiment amplifies the disruptive effect of carbon price on counterparty risk contagion, whereas carbon pricing can mitigate the disruptive effect of market panic on contagion among trading counterparties.

Key words: carbon tax, carbon trading, market panic, debt network

摘要： 基于碳价波动与市场恐慌情绪的交叉视角，结合复杂网络理论，构建碳税-碳交易协同策略下的企业碳交易网络风险传染模型。通过该模型，理论分析碳价与市场恐慌程度对碳交易对手风险传染的影响机制，并利用仿真模拟探讨了碳价、市场恐慌程度及羊群效应对碳交易对手风险传染的扰动效应。研究得到以下结论：① 在履约期变动且企业未足额清缴碳配额的情况下，企业破产数量呈波动上升趋势，碳交易对手风险传染规模最大；同一情景下，资产规模异质性显著影响企业破产数量。② 提升碳风险意识和消费者绿色偏好，降低资产抛售数量和噪音，并配合适度的媒体负面信息披露程度、信息传播程度及政策风险控制，可有效抑制碳交易对手风险传染。③ 当碳税税率与碳税-碳交易协同策略最优碳价达到同一水平时，协同策略的减排效果最佳，且碳价影响因素间的交互作用对碳交易对手风险传染影响最小。④ 市场恐慌情绪会强化碳价对碳交易对手风险传染的扰动作用，而碳价则能抑制市场恐慌情绪对企业间碳交易对手风险传染的扰动效应。

关键词: 碳税, 碳交易, 市场恐慌, 债务网络