Abstract: With the rapid development of China’s high-speed rail, the choice between high-speed rail and civil aviation travel has become a hot issue in the field of passenger travel behavior research. The simulation modeling of such passenger travel decisions can more systematically and clearly describe the characteristics of passengers and the evolution of competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation. First, based on the planned behavior theory, a multiple indicators and multiple causes model of high-speed rail and civil aviation passenger travel intentions was constructed by introducing time-sensitive and price-sensitive latent variables. Then, the exogenous variables and latent variables of the model were added to the utility function of trip decision to establish the simulation model. The results show that in the time and price sensitivity analysis, the effect of price sensitivity on passenger travel behavior starts at 500km, much earlier than time sensitivity. In the decision-making context of choosing high-speed rail and civil aviation travel, the passenger group can be effectively divided according to time sensitivity and price sensitivity. Compared with other passengers, Class II passengers are more willing to increase time costs and reduce economic costs. However, Class IV passengers are the opposite. Compared with Classes I and II passengers, Classes III and IV passengers are more flexible in switching between time cost and economic cost.

Key words: psychological latent variable, high-speed rail and civil aviation, travel behavior, simulation

摘要： 随着我国高铁的快速发展，选择高铁还是民航出行，已经成为旅客出行行为研究领域的热点问题。对此类旅客出行决策进行仿真建模，能够更加系统、清晰地描述旅客特征以及高铁和民航间竞争态势的演变。首先，基于计划行为理论，引入时间敏感性和价格敏感性潜变量，构建了高铁和民航旅客出行意愿的多指标多因果模型；其次，将模型中的外生变量和潜变量加入出行决策效用函数中建立仿真模型。结果表明，在时间和价格的敏感性分析中价格敏感性对于旅客出行行为的影响开始于500 km，远早于时间敏感性。在选择高铁民航出行的决策情境下，依据时间敏感性和价格敏感性能够有效划分旅客群体。Ⅱ类旅客相对于其他旅客更愿意提高时间成本，降低经济成本，Ⅳ类旅客则相反。相比Ⅰ、Ⅱ类旅客，Ⅲ、Ⅳ类旅客对于时间成本和经济成本的转换更加灵活。

关键词: 心理潜变量, 高铁民航, 出行行为, 仿真