Abstract:

While current studies paid little attention to effects of different types of emergencies on egress time, this paper classified emergencies into static ones and dynamic ones according to its types, and established a pedestrian flow model based on multi-agent simulation. In the model, the tunnel is divided into cells, with each pedestrian in a cell receiving a certain utility depending on the distance to the exit and the number of pedestrians in the cell. Then, each pedestrian uses the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium to search for the target cell with the maximum expected utility, takes collision avoidance action before moving into the target cell and then searches for the next target cell until he or she exits the tunnel. The simulation model is calibrated and validated from a real tunnel and is found to have a good consistency. Finally, based on the experimental data collected from different scenarios, it is concluded that close attention should be paid to the central part of the tunnel before emergencies occur, while after emergencies have occurred, pedestrians should be guided to react in a coordinated way, which is beneficial to the management of pedestrians in tunnels or some other venues.

Key words: emergency, pedestrian flow, safe egress, Bayesian-Nash equilibrium, multi-agent simulation

摘要：

当前的研究少有关注不同的突发事件对行人安全疏散的影响，依据突发事件的类型将其分为静态突发事件和动态突发事件，并建立了行人流多智能体仿真模型。模型依据行人离出口的距离以及单元格的拥挤程度定义行人获得的效用，采用贝叶斯纳什均衡，找出每个行人预期效用最大的单元格并作为其移动的目标。以某隧道行人流为背景，对模型有效性进行验证。最后，通过多场景仿真实验，得出：突发事件发生之前，要关注隧道中部的人群状况，防止突发事件；突发事件发生之后，要根据实际情况引导行人做出一致的响应。研究结论可为隧道等场所的行人流管理提供决策依据。

关键词: 突发事件, 行人流, 安全疏散, 贝叶斯纳什均衡, 多智能体仿真