Abstract: With fast development of technologies and productivities in past decades, many present-day complex systems display two important characteristics: complexity and uncertainty, where complexity may be further characterized by being large-scale, inter-connected and dynamic. In this article we are argue that computer simulation is suitable tool to model complex systems and may be used to solve many of the complex-system management problems. However, the complexity and uncertainty of complex systems also pose significant challenges to today’s simulation tools in modeling, prediction as well as optimization. We argue that the fast-developing technologies, including high-performance computing, big data and artificial intelligence,provide tremendous opportunities to develop next-generation simulation tools that can address these challenges.

Key words: complex-system management, computer simulation, simulation modeling, simulation prediction, simulation optimization

摘要： 近年来，随着工业技术和社会生产力的发展，很多系统呈现出复杂性和不确定性两个显著的特征，其中复杂性可以进一步刻画为大规模、网络化和动态性等。计算机仿真是这类复杂系统建模的重要工具，可以用来解决复杂系统管理中的很多问题。系统的复杂性和不确定性也给现今的仿真工具带来了很多挑战，在建模、预测和优化领域都有很多问题亟待解决。包括高性能计算、大数据和人工智能技术在内的很多新兴技术则为解决这些挑战带来了机遇，这些技术与仿真工具的深度融合将是下一代仿真工具研发的关键。

关键词: 复杂系统管理, 计算机仿真, 仿真建模, 仿真预测, 仿真优化