Abstract:

Program is the basic form of large-scale project organization and implementation. Since the program involves multiple stakeholders, the construction delay of the contracted project will amplify the risk of the employer. Therefore, how to improve the on-time completion probability of the contracted project, milestone contracted project and program through the effective monitoring of the buffer of the key chain program is the key to reducing the risk of the employer. First, from the perspective of the employer’s demand preference, the contracted project is divided into the employer’s present value preference contracted project and duration preference contracted project. Then, by analyzing the characteristics of milestone contracted projects, this paper studies and constructs the buffer monitoring model of key chain program based on the heterogeneity of contracted projects under different employer’s demand preferences. Finally, the buffer of key chain program is allocated according to the comprehensive utility, and different buffer monitoring benchmarks are set for the two types of contracted projects. At the same time, in combination with the milestone contracted project, the deviation correction measures of buffer monitoring benchmark are proposed. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional static unified buffer monitoring method, the differential monitoring method can realize the double optimization of the employer’s present value and construction period of the projected group at the same time, and improve the on-time completion probability of contracted projects, milestone contracted projects, and programs.

Key words: key chain program management, heterogeneity of contracted projects, employer’s present value-duration optimization

摘要：

项目群是大型工程组织实施的基本形态。项目群涉及多个利益主体，合同项目延误会放大业主风险，为此，如何通过有效监控关键链项目群的缓冲，提升合同项目和项目群的按时完成率是降低业主风险的关键。首先，从业主需求偏好角度，将合同项目分为业主现值偏好型合同项目和工期偏好型合同项目；其次，根据综合效用，对关键链项目群缓冲进行分配，分别设置了两类合同项目的缓冲监控基准点；最后，研究并构建了业主不同需求偏好下基于合同项目异质性的关键链项目群缓冲监控方法，同时，提出了缓冲监控基准点的纠偏措施。仿真结果表明，与传统的静态统一缓冲监控方法相比，差别监控方法能够实现项目群业主现值和工期的双优化，并提高了合同项目和项目群的按时完成率。

关键词: 关键链项目群管理, 合同项目异质性, 业主现值-工期优化