Abstract:

The flow of factors lead to spillover effect, and the coordinated development of regional economies cannot be separated from the continuous effect of inter-provincial spillover effects. By constructing a GVAR model and using the panel data of 29 provinces (cities), it is demonstrated that there exist the spatial spillover effects of economic growth in Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing, and there exist mutual spillover effects between the three cities, considering the heterogeneity of each region’s mutual influence. The results indicate that the linkage between economic growth in the eastern provinces is stronger, followed by the central region and the western region, while the economic relationship between the three central cities is not significant. Further regression analysis of the spillover effect suggests that the capital investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) of the region are positively correlated with the spillover effect, while the capital investment and FDI of the other region are negatively correlated with the spillover effect. The empirical results help to plan the economic development model of different regions, correctly understand the development relationship between each other, and promote regional innovation and development.

Key words: Yangtze River Economic Belt, economic relevance, capital investment, mutual spillover effect

摘要：

要素流动产生溢出效应，区域经济协同发展离不开省际间相互溢出效应的持续作用。通过构建GVAR模型，利用全国29省（市）的面板数据，在充分考虑各地区相互影响的异质性基础上，实证了上海、武汉和重庆各区域的经济增长空间外溢效应，以及3个中心城市间的相互溢出效应。研究表明：东部省际间经济增长的联动性较强，中部次之，西部较弱；而中心城市间的经济关联程度不高。进一步对溢出效应的变量回归分析，发现本地区的资本投入与外商直接投资(FDI)与溢出效应呈正相关，而外地区的资本投入与外商直接投资（FDI）对溢出效应呈负相关；实证结果有助于规划不同区域的经济发展模式，正确认识相互间的发展关系，推动创新发展。

关键词: 长江经济带, 经济关联性, 资本投入, 相互溢出效应